Market Update

General - Fortescue - Genex - Prairie Mining

Good afternoon

German investor confidence drops quite sharply - no surprise!

Volkswagen to invest 1 bill Euro into their first batterie-cell manufacturing plant in Northern Germany…these guys are certainly very serious about EV´s…Volkswagen will start manufacturing capacity for 350.000 in Eastern germany by the end of the year, and for 600.000 cars in China during 2020.

LME stocks of nickel have now fallen relentlessly since 19.2.2019….down to 168.000t, compared to 207.000t 31.12.18 and 367.000t on 31.12.2017 ( total market in 2019 is about 2.100.000 t overall )….Glencore in today´s presentation see nickel demand from EV´s increasing from 110.000t in 2020 to 400.000t in 2025 and 1.300.000 t in 2013. For copper, they see demand increasing from 300.000t in 2020 to 1.100.000 t in 2025 and 3.000.000 t in 2030….this does not include copper used in charging infrastructure.

BHP, which has tried to sell Nickel West ( including a massive enviromental liability from the Kambalda smelter operation ) a few times, have decided to keep it in light of a strong outlook for nickel products, as announced by the CEO today.

Fortescue - great surprise today: a fully franked, 60ct special dividend! No wonder, that FMG is a very shareholder-friendly company: Chairman and Founder Andrew Forrest holds 35% and is going to get a taxfree , 650 Mill A$ cheque! Well deserved? well not sure whether anyone deserves a cheque like that - but he has done an unbelievable job over the years, and is Australian largest donor to all sort of causes. If I am right, he is also one of the very few Australian Richies, who has pledged under the Bill Gates 50%-rule. Good on him. Even better: Macquarie-analysts believe, that another 20ct in Div could be paid, if the iron ore price holds current levels until end June. The discount of FMG-quality ore to the spot market of the official contract is at it´s lowest for years, and their profit margin should be something like 55$/t…amazing numbers, if you produce 165 millt of the stuff!

Genex - we are still waiting for news, but in the meantime, broker Baillieu have finally issued a new update report today, valuing GNX at 45ct, on the basis, that they will need another 20 millA$ in equity , raised at only 20ct/share, to fully develope their hydro - as well as their second solar project. I sincerely hope, that this is a conservative expectation, as I would rather hope for an equity injection of 67 Mill shares at 30ct, once the several pending news announcements have been made!

Prairie Mining - are having yet anotehr run in Poland…no news, but stock traded as high as the equivalent of 0,44 A$ on good turnover.JSW had previous said, that tehy need until the end of April for a decision - well, it´s now mid May! Sooo hard to deal with the Polish…especially, when the potential bidder is in a consistent fight between Management and majority owner, the government. I have given up on all projections here and just wait to see what eventually happens!

Have a nice evening

WS

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General - Lefroy - Antipa

Good afternoon

Trump´s tactics are becoming more and more dangerous….with Iran, as well as with China. Interesting, that US stocks get hurt more than Europeans…probably not only reasoned by previous outperformance. Do you want to own Apple/Boeing for example in a trade war, or do you want to be a US-farmer?? But I guess you do not want to be an Australian fundmanager either - nor the MD of a German car producer!

I hat political markets - and this market certainly is in the moment! Extremely difficult to have a view…but for today, it feels awful!

Bonds are very strong today, as you would expect - metals are under pressure

Gold is jumping and is testing 1300, as I am writing…1866 A$/oz and on it´s way to the second strongest close in history!

Oil is also very strong - another political market!

The International Nickel Study Group expects another supply deficit of 84.000 t this year, despite a strong rise of production in Indonesia. Last year, they estimate the deficit to have been 146.000t. Nickel stocks last year on the LME fell by 160.000t - very close to their deficit numbers.

On the 18th, Australia will elect a new Prime Minister! Well - remains to be seen, whether he will be a new one…The opposition has been leading the polls for a long time, but the lead has become less secure…

Lefroy exploration - this small stock with only 13 mill market cap has hit some success again…their Lucky Srike prospect delivered the best intersection so far, being 17m with 3,58g gold/t, following a few good intercepts earlier on. This alone would not get me excited - but Lucky Strike and the other ground, held in JV with Goldfields, is close to the recent Beta Hunt massive find of gold nugegts, and more important, close to Goldfields Invincible-discovery, which Goldfields is very bullish on. It´s also immediately South of Silver Lakes mining operation. Goldfields can earn 70% of the LEX-ground just South of Lucky Strike, by expending 25 mill A$ over 6 years. Early days, and nobody wants to hear on a day like today - but pretty exciting exploration stuff!

Antipa - announced a small, maiden resource for two of it´s targets in the Paterson Province. . 106.000 oz at 1,3g is not all that significant but increases their total resource to 827.000 at 1.9g gold /t over 3 deposits, all within 40km from Newcrests hungy Telfer mine. Perhaps more important is, that the company has started their 20.000m drilling programm in this area, which hosts the potentially very large WInu find, where currently 180 people are based to further explore and define it. Given this frentic activity, and the JV with RIO next door also very active this year, I think some kind of excitement is pretty much assured!

As I am finishing, especially the NASDAQ is looking pretty ugly…down by 3,2%! Let´s hope, that Trump will be sending out a positive Tweet!

have a nice evening, regardless!

WS

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General - Sheffield

Good afternoon

German exports in March rose by a faster than expected 1,5% MoM. The CPI in the States was slightly lower than expected.

Good bounce in equities today, led by a 3,6% rise in China - but not in the States! Uber also not helping…. Metals recover yesterday´s losses.

Sheffield - I have not written about them for a while, as there is no news…But now, the share price has fallen to a level, which is redicilous ! As you might remember, SFX are developing the Thunderbird mineral sands deposit in the Canning Basin in the North of Western Australia, containing 680 millt with a content of 11,3% mineral sands. Glbally, a significant resource in a top jurisdiction, and largely financed by Taurus. There are 70-80 mill$ in equity left to do, and the compnay expects this to achieve via a partial selldown of the asset to a JV partner. UBS have been mandated in mid-Jan to formally start this process, and a data room has been opened. I believe, that there is substantial interest in this deposit, as the world will experience a supply deficit in zircon ( SFX´s main product ) soon and for many years to come, unless new mines will be developed.

The project NPV is anywhere between 1 - and 2$/share ( fully diluted for future capital raisings ), depending on which scenario you use ( % of selldown, discount to NPV, price of zircon etc )) vs the current 50ct share price. The stock has been languishing ever since the 65ct capital raise back in december, on no news…There will be no news,either, as naturally, teh compnay has substantially reduced activities to preserve cash, while they are running the sales process ( which, by the way, might well end up in a full bid for the company ). Unfortunately, such a sales process, while ongoing, dramatically reduces the ability of the company to either release news, or talk to investors.

Fundamentals, though, have not changed - it´s a great project, the zircon market will be in need for more supply, and in the hands of a merger, the NPV of currently 600-800 mill A$ would probably be quite a bit higher due to lower costs for a major to develope Thunderbird ( potentially larger production, earlier kick-in of Stage 2, lower intereste rates, existing distribution channels etc ). I would have said the same at 80ct - but I think the really outstanding quaility of this project , in conjunction with demonstrated and substantial resource upside from the current 42.year mine life ( ! ) and great fundamentals for zircon, make the company an outstanding buying opportunity for investors. The current sales process will not go on forever - latest by this summer, somebody will make a move!

Have a nice weekend

WS

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

General - Liontown - Tietto - Bellevue - RIO - Graphex

Good afternoon

Trump is tweeting again on the ( failing ? ) trade negotiatiomns- and this ridicilous Barr-story surrounding the Mueller-Report is probably also hurting things. Equities are pretty weak across the board today.

Inflation, as measured by the PPI, continues to be very subdued…

Another outstanding effort by a pommy soccer team yesterday….Ajax got completely overrun in the second half yesterday!

Two interesting, historic facts today:

Macquarie Bank is the only listed entity worldwide, which never had a loss in 50 years of history!! I am proud of having worked for them for 15 years or so.

AngloGold is exiting gold production in South Africa, where they produced ( I believe ) gold for 100 years! Tells you something about the sorry state of that wonderful country…

Nickel stocks are falling and falling…now at just over 170.000t…but unfortunately, nickel stocks are only one little part of the puzzle…trade negotiations and their potentially very negative consequences are much more important in the moment. All base metals down by at least 1% today

Liontown - you don´t have that many stocks quadrupling in 2 month these days…180 mill shares traded, closing at 8ct…and for a change, there is no imminent placement coming, as they just raised 7 mill$ ( at 2ct!! ). I really like Tim Goyder, and while he has had some success over the years with Chalice, he has not had a big win for years Good on him! Eventually - I fear not always, though! - the money is with the good people. A lot of speculation surrounding the stock, following another round of outstanding drilling results from the main project, Kathleen Valley. Their additional resource target of 19-31 millt might well hit the top of this range, once the new estimate will be out in 8 weeks or so. Grades, if anything, improved to 1.5% from 1,4% as well, looking at these long intersections. And as we know, there is a lot of corporate interest out there for strong lithium assets! 8ct probably are not the end of it! Kidman Resources, which received the bid from Wesfarmers the other day, sold 50% of their project last year to SQM for 158 Mill A$ at the time - LTR´s market cap as of today is 122 mill A$, and 100% of their resource looks now to be as big as KDR´s resource… Fantastic to have such a success from a company, which presented at our conference in Zürich!

Tietto - they announced some intersections, which could increase the high grade part of their resource - very high grades up to 400g, But I caution a little, as 1m intersections don´t add all that many tons! But certainly, this one is going into the right direction and I bought some more stock today.

Bellevue Gold - stock was up a few cents today - I guess on the back of a presentation Stephen Parsons did at the RIU Explorer Conference today. He is an excellent marketer. As you know, marketing is an integral part of running an emerging company…It´s also very interesting to watch the youtube video - link below. It remains a great story - 4 drill rigs currently working, fully financed for a very extensive drilling program this year, and next resource upgrade “in the 2.nd Quarter” - I guess it will be very late in the Quarter, as the last 500.000 oz-increase was anounced only in early February. BGL continues to be one of the ebst development stories in gold - perhaps the ebst in Australia. Not unbelievable cheap, but I think it´s still worthwhile to accumulate stock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHJoXbacwTs&feature=youtu.be

RIO - the company commented at today´s AGM, that a 180-strong exploration team is working on their new discovery, Winu, in the Paterson Province, and that they have no doubt, that there will be a mine. This is as bullish as it gets from a very conservative company like RIO. The labor cost alone to a major company like RIO ( with big overheads ) in a remote location would excced 35 mill A$ p.a. …probably closer to 45 mill A$….

Graphex - were do we go from here? The share price has stabilised and more recently, even tried to get through 30ct - but has fallen back since. The market seems bored…no news as yet from the Tanzanian government - like others, Graphex have all sort of positive indications, but essential approvals continue to sit at the cabinet-level, and wait for approval. The feasibility study will probably also be delayed due to some drill sample problems on the Tanzanian side ( nothing dramatic, but without going into too much detail, there was a 6 week-or so delay )….But these things take so long, that I am not really worried by that. Whether we have the feasibility study by June or July or even August - I do not really care, as the company is being financed properly by the loan from Castlelake. What is important, though, is that the price deck for the special product the company will produce, for use mainly in the building industry, is holding up. It´s not really dpending on the battery market - at least for now, that´s good news! And GPX look set to get much better prices for their product than for battery-material anyway, in a market, which is probably 20x the size of what GPX will ever produce. Market activity in Black Rock Mining BKT and Walkabout Resources WKT ( both companies show many similarities )has increased recently, and both companies have recently done small placements. In some regards, those two might be a little more advanced than GPX - but GPX have the big advantage of having what I call base-financing in place ( from Castlelake ) - even though this will need to be accompanied by a relatively small rights issue. Very hard to say, which project is actually the best - they all have pro´s and contra´s - but I really believe, that the financing sets Graphex apart.

We have recently seen, just how quickly something like Graphex can move from 22ct to 30ct - and that was accompanied by no news. Imgaine, what they actually might do, once there is news! And let´s not forget, that the NPV is about 25x the current share price ( without me saying, that the stock will go up by 25 times! , especially, as equity needs to be raised at some stage from Castlelake and existing shareholders ). But these quieter times should certainly be used by retail shareholders to build positions - for institutions, this is no option, as turnover rarely reaches 1 mill shares/day. As you know, I am a reasonable significant holder and strong believer!

Have a nice evening

WS

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

General - Northern Star - Lithium

Good afternoon

As all our German teams kind of evaporated from the Champions League, we Germans loved Kloppi´s fantastic victory with Liverpool last night! He got to be one of the best motivators in soccer, getting everything and more out of his players!

German Industrial Production increased by an unexpected 0,5% in March - though this is a very volatile series,

Chinese exports weaker than expected - imports stronger than expected. Potentially, figures are maipulated for the trade negotiations??

China has increased gold reserves for a 5th month in a row…

A$ gold price back up to 1840 A$….1290 US$…equities weaker, following a stronger start to the day in Europe. Markets still very worried about Trump pokering too high…Well this was the situation just 2-3 hours ago - but as I am finishing, Trump has tweeted again , voicing his believe, that he still sees an agreement as possible - and equities are recovering - gold is retreating…

Vale iron ore production in line with estimates

Codelco produces 29% less copper in the first Quarter, mainly driven by heavy rains during the period.Still, copper is down again today in London - financial players more important for the direction of prices in the short run than fundamentals. A resolution to US/Chinese trade talks should see a big rebound in copper prices.

Northern Star - had a very interesting call with them this morning. Very interesting, what the company is saying and doing about Pogo, their North American aquisition. As we could see in results for the first Quarter, a lot of work to do there, and the company believes, that tehy will need at least 18 month to do all the things they want to do. Generally, and interestingly, productivity of underground mining at Pogo has been dramatically lower than in Australia. The company has initiated a few changes already, with many more to come. Avaiilability of mining equipment has been very poor - that should be an issue largely behind them now. The company is throwing very substantial, human resource at it…currently, 30 Australians are on the ground at Pogo on a 1 month on - 1 month off basis. Reportedly, the North American employees are very proactive…but I am sure, that there will be some cultural clashes. Quite a few of the new employees have also been flown to Australia to look especially at Jundee to understand, how NST are doing things. My impression is, that NST exactly know what they have to do - and that there is substantial upside from them running Pogo as opposed to the previous owner, Sumitomo. It also shows, how much effort you have to put into a new aquisition on a new continent! There are not all that many Australian gold companies having enought depth from a financial as well as management perspective to do this - this point was mentioned by NST, and I think they are dead-right here. The guys who should be able to do this are the obvious ones…certainly just very few…If NST can turn this one around and make Pogo a sustainable producer for 10-15 years at reasonable costs, I think many North American gold producers will wonder what they have done by not bidding for the asset…The jury is out and we will probably not really know for another 9 month or so - but our call really impressed me! I have to say, that a fair share of a Pogo-rerating is probably in the share price already

If you want to play the gold price, I think it´s a good idea to buy some EVN at current levels. With gold creeping back up, EVN should have a very good correlation to gold following the recent consolidation.

Lithium - a lot of talk about it and the other battery metals - but especially lithium, as it is the most market relevant. Livent, the US company and one of the larger players in the end product for the battery producers, came out with a very average Quarterly the otehr day, citing demand weakness for lithium hydroxide. They see lower take-up by some battery producers, as the switch to nickel-intensive batteries, for which producers prefer LiOH. They expect conditions to change only late 2019 / early 2020. So more on the mismatch between current lithirum production, and actual EV car sales. So hard on the heels of the recent Umicore result, another cautious voice for short term pricing! All players remain positive for tzhe longer term, and see the need for incentive pricing to finance new projects, which will definitely be needed - but perhaps rather later than sooner!

Have a nice evening

WS