Market Update

General - Fortescue - Genex - Prairie Mining

Good afternoon

German investor confidence drops quite sharply - no surprise!

Volkswagen to invest 1 bill Euro into their first batterie-cell manufacturing plant in Northern Germany…these guys are certainly very serious about EV´s…Volkswagen will start manufacturing capacity for 350.000 in Eastern germany by the end of the year, and for 600.000 cars in China during 2020.

LME stocks of nickel have now fallen relentlessly since 19.2.2019….down to 168.000t, compared to 207.000t 31.12.18 and 367.000t on 31.12.2017 ( total market in 2019 is about 2.100.000 t overall )….Glencore in today´s presentation see nickel demand from EV´s increasing from 110.000t in 2020 to 400.000t in 2025 and 1.300.000 t in 2013. For copper, they see demand increasing from 300.000t in 2020 to 1.100.000 t in 2025 and 3.000.000 t in 2030….this does not include copper used in charging infrastructure.

BHP, which has tried to sell Nickel West ( including a massive enviromental liability from the Kambalda smelter operation ) a few times, have decided to keep it in light of a strong outlook for nickel products, as announced by the CEO today.

Fortescue - great surprise today: a fully franked, 60ct special dividend! No wonder, that FMG is a very shareholder-friendly company: Chairman and Founder Andrew Forrest holds 35% and is going to get a taxfree , 650 Mill A$ cheque! Well deserved? well not sure whether anyone deserves a cheque like that - but he has done an unbelievable job over the years, and is Australian largest donor to all sort of causes. If I am right, he is also one of the very few Australian Richies, who has pledged under the Bill Gates 50%-rule. Good on him. Even better: Macquarie-analysts believe, that another 20ct in Div could be paid, if the iron ore price holds current levels until end June. The discount of FMG-quality ore to the spot market of the official contract is at it´s lowest for years, and their profit margin should be something like 55$/t…amazing numbers, if you produce 165 millt of the stuff!

Genex - we are still waiting for news, but in the meantime, broker Baillieu have finally issued a new update report today, valuing GNX at 45ct, on the basis, that they will need another 20 millA$ in equity , raised at only 20ct/share, to fully develope their hydro - as well as their second solar project. I sincerely hope, that this is a conservative expectation, as I would rather hope for an equity injection of 67 Mill shares at 30ct, once the several pending news announcements have been made!

Prairie Mining - are having yet anotehr run in Poland…no news, but stock traded as high as the equivalent of 0,44 A$ on good turnover.JSW had previous said, that tehy need until the end of April for a decision - well, it´s now mid May! Sooo hard to deal with the Polish…especially, when the potential bidder is in a consistent fight between Management and majority owner, the government. I have given up on all projections here and just wait to see what eventually happens!

Have a nice evening


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