General - Finders - Apollo - Genex

Good afternoon

back from holidays, the world has gotten more difficult! Tech stocks with problems - from Facebook to Trump-beaten Amazon, the FAANg´s are facing tougher regulations. The Syrian situation has escalated; Trump has imposed sanctions on Russian companies, which might have a bigger impact than  China-sanctions imposed so far; China-US tensions are still rising....and perhaps unsurprisingly, all these rumblings are starting to have an effect on the economy, as most of recent numbers are indicating, that the best might be over. Perhaps even worse, there ar still some early-warning signs appearing for higher inflation - a problem, which has been forgotten about lately. 

So no surprise, that risk-off seems to be driving markets again, as Trump´s behaviour seems to be getting more erratic by the day. The worst of all of this: The narciss loves his power, and he seems to me irresponsible and volatile enough to play with it! 

One thing is for sure, in my opinion: One should be prepared for strong corrections - i.e. don´t be fully invested, and keep some powder dry!

North American gold stocks are still extremely disappointing...while Australians continue to strongly outperform. 

Prairie Mining - we got hit here by what I consider nationalists making it difficult for foreign money, I think....more on Thursday, following a call with management

Finders - the stock is all but gone. While it remains uncertain, whether the company will be completely delisted, I guess everybody from over here will have accepted the takeover. Funds should flow very soon, if you have not received them by now. Management has been taken over already by the new, Indonesian owners. 

Apollo Minerals - Have completed a placement of 5 mill$ at 23ct to large , institutional investors in London. The price is a little disappointing - but I guess the fact, that it all went to institutional guys is more important. Following the grant of access, and the aquisition of the remaining 20% of the project, this placement was the third and last step needed to seriously start exploration/drilling activities at their tungsten/gold project now. I would expect the announcement of drilling activities soon. AON have been kind of dormant for some time, pending the above three announcements. From now on, we should see some fun here!

Genex- have completed negotiations with land owners for a third, renewable energy project at their Kidston hub, this time for a 150 MW wind project. The feasibility study will need very limited cash, and should take 15-18 month to complete. This third leg of their project should allow them to produce energy around the clock, further enhancing the high value of it to future East Coast energy supply. The company continous to put high pressure on the financing of Stage 2 expansion project, for which financial close is expected this year. A subordinated financing approval from the Northern Australian Infrastructur Fund and a firm offtake-agreement will be major near-term triggers for the stock.

I will report on  Strike Energy´s new aquisition tomorrow.

Have a nice evening

WS

General

Good afternoon

looks like this idiot is going to do it: imposing tariffs! As with all political action, there is an element in this, which everybody can understand..,. but still, I would be very surprised, if this would bring positive developments for American people!

German business confidence is falling, Japanese manufacturing is gowing slower - I guess both impacted by the looming trade war. But manufacturing in the States is doing well, and the FED is obviously quite convinced of further, economic improvement in the US in 2019 and 2020, as per the interest rate outlook given yesterday by Powell.

In any case - a trade war will hurt, and none of us wants it...

Also action in the tech-sector...Facebook under pressure, results at Tencent apparently not all that fantastic - and now Naspers selling 10 bill US$ worth of stock...all not very convincing news.

The base metals are weak as well - not surprising, I guess - a tarde war will be bad for growth, no doubt about that!

Have a nice evening

Ws

General - Highfield - West African - Graphex

Good afternoon

not much happening so far today - I guess everybody expects a rate rise in the States - bonds are little changed, equities in Europe slightly weaker, currencies little changed, and base metals looking stronger, as the day progresses.  Gold looks pretty strong at 1325 US$

Cobalt jumped another 6% today! Now trading at 95.000$/t or 43 US$/lb!!

Has Zambia "learned" from Tanzania? The government claims, that First Quantum, the countries largest copper producer, underpaid 9 bill US$ in taxes over 6 years. This is not final - but it sounds - unfortunately - pretty much like Acacia´s experience in Tanzania. Would not be good for the continent, and certainly not good for Zambia - always assuming, that First Quantum have done the right thing. Zambia is a large copepr producer, with 850.000t p.a.

Holdings in the various gold funds are at a recent high - no wonder, given so many problems in the world!

Highfield Resources - 3 years later, and we are only three month away???? I cannot believe it! They updated the market today as to the Enviromental Approval for their potash projct in Spain. There are three issues outstanding: The relevant authority wants more info on the impact of seismic activity, and possible subsidence on local infrastructure, but more dangerously ( in my opinion ) , also more info on what HFR will do with the resulting salt-byproduct. The latter sounds more difficult to me. The authority expects an answer within 3 month - which should not be a problem. Given past experience, they will then take theirtime...say another 3 month?? As I said the otehr day - somebody must have mis-handled government relationships here - this sounds to b...y crazy to me. Unfortunately, I am still a shareholder, and I don´t quite know what to do with it...the project is basically a very sound and profitable project, but this approval process really tests my nerves!!!! And I would regard myself as a very patient shareholder, generally, used to the fact, that resources projects ex gold ( and ex Australia ) usually take a few years longer, than originally planned!

West African Resources - very good news here, already out yesterday: Extensive, metallurgical test work has given them 96.5% recovery of the gold from the M! underground resource, vs preliminary numbers of 90%. This is an extra 10.000oz or so in production p.a. for the first few years - going straight to the bottom line, without any additional mining- or processing costs! A big plus for my currently favourite gold stock!!! The updated feasibility study in June/July should be fun...the next resource update should be a few weeks late because of recent drilling success, so expected now sometime in April. By the middle of the year at latest, B2Gold´s major mine, Fekola, shoulde generate a lot of cashflow, producing at least 400.000oz p.a. at about 600 US$....given the small distance of their resource to West African´s asset, Sambrado, BTO are my favourite contender!

Graphex - completed a small 2.45 Mill A$ placement ( which leaves them with about 2 mill$ to raise additional funds with having to call a Special Annual Meeting ), to be on the safe side. Cash pre placement was probably around 1 Mill A$, and the company is in advanced negotiations with the planned, Chinese JV-partner, and other sources for financing. So beside of cash being potential squeezed, it will also improve the negotiating position of the company. Funds will also be used for an update feasibility study, which will incorporate increased resources, potentially increased production, and especially a much increased price for GPX´s special graphite ( which is up roughly 50% in 12 month, and for which the demand is only capped by current, very limited supply ). A recent broker report estimated the stock to be worth between 2.30-2.40 A$...I would not be surprised, if that should work out halfway correct. The placement was done at 28ct - the stock is trading at 29.5ct today. I participated in the placement, again inceasing my position in this excellent story.

Have a  ice evening

WS

General - Newcrest - Gascoyne - Finders - Beadell

Good afternoon

amazing, how the US-market and the US$ are holding up during this political turmoil in Washington! Nero seems to prepare an assault on Mueller...disgraceful, and if the US is still a democracy with independant institutions, I hope his Republican mates will prevent this to happen. ( well, I wrote this, before the US opened...does not look so good right now!)

In the meantime, Putin got re-elected - well, looks like the voting process has been sort of an election - but even Western commentators seem to agree, that the majority of Russian people want Putin to run the show.

Cobalt is trading above 40$ ...new high...as some German think-tank is warning, that a shortage of it might limit the penetration of EV´s at some stage. 

It looks like the UK and the EU have agreed on a transition deal...Sterling is very strong today

Zuckerberg does not seem to handle his data well - tech under pressure in the States, which is exaggerating market falls. They are under pressure anyway from the political side - this is the last thing we need! Base metals also a little weaker, while gold is looking better.

Australian gold stocks had a pretty good day - I have to admit, that I am surprised about the ongoing strength, given the lacklustre- to weaker gold price more recently, which is rather disappointing, giving the massive, political disruptions around the world. Australian stocks continue their massive outperformance vs North American gold miners - I guess a disappointing Newcrest is helping here, as some investors might be switching out of the market leader.

Beadell - will merge with a Canadia shell company to get a Canadian listing, and is doing a small placement, which gives Sprott and some Lundin-backed entities a cheap entry via a placement. Well - we will find out, whether the placement has been cheap...as you know, I stopped being a fan of Beadell years ago...

Finders - unfortunately, defeat is looming! The Indonesian institutions will most probably end up being succesfull with their cheeky bid for the company. The market is just to cautious on Indonesia, as many investors have been ripped of there before. About 60% of the stock is now controlled by the Indonesians - I am too scared to be left behind and will accept the takeover at 23ct as well, ending a journey , which lasted many years! The risk of being a minority holder here is just too high. Pity - the bid is way too cheap...

Gascoyne - updated the market today on progress and said, that so-called wet comissioning would be taking place within 2 month. De-risking is accellerating, and that´s showing up in the share price, which made a new recent high with very strong turnover.

Newcrest - quite interesting....they announced the feasibility study for Wafi, their massive gold/copper development in JV with Goldfields, in PNG. 2.8 bill$ initial capital for the production of 161.000t of copper + 265.000oz og gold p.a.. Not surprisingly, the IRR is only 18% - for a ming project in PNG, that is very low, in my opinion. The pay-back is a staggering 9.5 years at copper price of 3$/lb! And the tailings are going to be dumped into the sea...That does not sound like 2018 to me...it won´t be easy to get approval for this ( and perhaps they should not get approval??? I know too little about it, but it sounds rather irresponsible to me...). From the day of approval, the project will need nearly 6 years to be up and running. I am not 100% sure about this, but I think Wafi has been discovered early this century - another mine, which will take 20 years or so from discovery to ( potential ) production. Financing of the project is also not clear at this stage - a lot of money for Newcrest, but even more for JV-partner Goldfields. The feasibility study is not a reason to buy Newcrest - the company will remain under pressure, I think.

Have a nice evening

WS

General - Panoramic - Genex

Good afternoon

what a terrible week! Trouble with Russia, trouble in Washington...quite surprising, how well equity markets are holding up. The amazing thing is, that things are always repeating in history...May is finding a welcome topic to take attention from her disastrous performance otherwise, Trump apparently feels betetr by the day - He is clearly thinking of himself as a great leader...and unstoppable. I am really worried about the US government removing anybody from office, who is critical of Nero...

Bond markets came to the relief this week...alongside some slightly weaker economic numbers, they have really quietened down a bit from the recent excitement. That was at least the case until today - Industrial Production in the States was very strong, while the housing market cooled somewhat, as reported an hour ago. Also, Consumer Confidence as measured by the University of Michigan very strong!

So in the aftermath of these numbers, bonds are weakening off, the US$ is very strong - and metals are giving up their gains (obviously reacting more to the $ than to the strong IP-numbers! )

Panoramic - the share price is on a roll following this weeks Institutional Investor Week, organized by Euroz on Rodnest Island. Reportedly, the company has found lots of interest. Share price has broken out on the charts...and I think if nickel breaks the 14.000 level next week, this move should have more legs.Copper, nickel, cobalt ( which is making a new high, again ) are the wanted metals - especially looking a few years out. The noise in battery metals just does not let go - every week, there is a new corporate deal, offtake agreement etc.. And the car industry worldwide has committed so much capital to the EV-theme by now, that nothing will stop this trend.

Genex - well-regarded small cap fundmanager Acorn reduced it´s stake further. They bought it at 16-17ct - perhaps understandable to take some profits - still, I am expecting much more from Genex, once we have the off-take agreement and the financing in place. Patience is a difficult thing...hopefully, it will pay off here soon!

Not much to report , really, from the micro-side today!

You have a nice weekend!

WS