Market Update

Good afternoon

Morgan Stanley sees the A$ potentially falling to 65ct...that would hurt us over here, but would be a major driver of earnings for Australian commodity producers. Earnings for them should rise between 20-and 40% - at least theoretically driving share prices harder than our currency-losses. Main reason for MS´s bearishness is the historically very low interest rate differential between Australia and the US. The short as well as long term interest rates are allmost identical, or getting tehre - especially after the Australian Rserve Bank today indicated no short term eed to increase rates, while US-rates are clearly going up.

Glencore with a VERY bullish presentation on nickel, calling for another large deficit in 2018 of 140.000t, and very bullish on longer term demand from 2020 because of EV´s. Norilsk is a bit more cautious, only expecting a small deficit in 2018, and limited uptake of EV´s. I am a bull...so clearly believing Glencore!! Even though I feel a bit with John Lennon: with wonderful humour, he said about himself in a presentation recently: I am known for having forecast 5 of the last 3 bull markets in nickel!

Base metals looking ok so far today - slightly ahead of yesterday. Zinc stocks are making new lows, copper stocks also heading southward. As the day progresses, metals are becoming pretty strong  - probably also helped by good housing numbers in thes States.

Bloomberg reports of a 63% jump in sales of EV´s worldwide until 30.9. , driven by very strong sales in China, where EV´s are heavily subsidised, and where pollution in major cities is a major problem. For 2018, Bloomberg expects sales to break through 1 mill EV´s for the first time. Still we must not get too carried away, as really big numbers are still 4-5 years away - and only then they will have a major impact on copper/nickel., while more sensitive metals are seeing massive supply growth before then ( lithium, graphite ). 

Graphex Mining - had their AGM today and clearly indicated good progress in talks with the Tnzanian government, as well as with their Chinese financiers. The Chairman eluded to the MD visiting China again in a few weeks time - to me, that sounded like a hint of making substantial progress with the financing. I have said before, that I think GPX will have a good chance in getting their project pushed through, despite the current turmoil in Tanzania. No Western  bank would finance anything there in the moment - but Chinese banks might actually do so. China has a pretty close relationship with tanzania and is a builder of large infrastructur-projects there. Also, the type of graphite being produced by GPX - and of this kind, the best in the world - for the use as a flame retardent for building materials, is extremely sought after in China, and prices for it have increased by 50% in the last twelve month because of enviromental closures of local mines, as well as increased demand because of new building legislation. Not for widows - but I am holding a very reasonable position here.

OZ Minerals - have increased their underground reserves at their existing mine, Prominent Hill, by one year, to 2029. Resources are still 80 millt of ore, and the company expects to replace mine depletion for many years to come. The open pit at Prominent Hill will be mined out in 1Qu 2018 - thereafter, the plant will be fed with stockpiled ore ( no mining costs! ) at full capacity to 2023. Their second mine, Carapateena, will reach full production during 2020. I think OZL are good value at current levels - copper at 3.10 US$ is a fantastic price for them, and unlesswe will see a big downturn in China, copper prices will pick up again in 2-3 years time and even more so, once EV´s seriously kick in. And the recently announced feasibility study with Cassini for their Neo-Babel project, which is a few yera away, if succesfull, gives them further growth after Carapateena. If Morgan Stanley turns out to be correct with the A$ outlook, the company would make an additional 25% in net earnings...No doubt, that OZL is the best-quality exposure you can buy to copper in Australia - while:

Finders Resources - is the cheapest! Following hard on the heels of yesterday´s positive announcement on metallurgical testing, they today announced a new reserve estimate for Lerokis, which conatins 11.000t more copper than previously estimated. The high recoveries + higher tonnage can potentially add another 80-90 Mill US$ to EBITDA for FND over the next few years - and that´s for a stock with a market cap of only 140 mill US + 50 mill US or so in debt ( and making 75 mill US$ p.a. in EBITDA before these new numbers) ! This stock is soooo cheap - sounds crazy, but without the takeover-bid by these cheaky Indonesians, the stock would probably trade 10-20% higher already. Honestly - any takeover lower than 30ct has no chance, as real value of this company is 40ct+ with copper at 3$+.

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

 

General - Crusader - Finders - Gascoyne - Marindi

Good afternoon

unless we will have a big surprise, Germany will need to have a new election...Merkel did not manage to get everybody to agree on a Liberal/Green/Christian Democrats-coalition. Uncertainty is never good - surprisingly, equities as wella s curency are about unchanged here in Europe...while gold is still edging higher. Base metals are also unchanged - so no real action today! As the day progresses, the $ is getting stronger - but that was due to a very strong Leading Indicator in the States - the strongest since Oct 2013.

The interest in gold stocks remains surprisingly subdued, especially in North America...

One interesting statistic: The ASX Small resources Index closed up for the 7th, consecutive week. This has happened 9x over the last 23 years. Whenever this occured, the Index was higher 6-and 12month later ! Let´s hope, that the same happens again!

Crusader - surprise! The old MD, Rob Smakman, got replaced by Marcus Engelbrecht, who was until very recently the MD of Stratex, the partner in the failed merger. Obviously, Engelbrecht is the candidate of major supporter and chairman, Steve Copulos. I think it´s pretty obvious, that Crusader need fresh equity....they have Zero currently...but I think both Brazilian gold projects are worth more than the current market cap. Will be interesting, whether the new MD can do more with them, than the previous MD! While I liked Rob, the progress over the last few years has certainly been limited.

Finders Resources - announced metallurgical testwork results from their next open pit mine, Lerokis. While the feasibility study had expected 66% recovery, newest results indicate 88 and 82.6% recovery, after 230 leach days vs 1.200 used in the original study. This increase in recovery could add 60 Mill US$  ( or 45 Mill US$ for FND´s 74% stake ) to the project value - that´s equivalent to 8ct/share. Additionally, the new Reserve Statement should show higher grades, as recent drilling results have been very positive, and maybe also more tonnes. The Indonesian consortium delivered finally their takeover-document. Of interest will now be the so-called Part B statement ( to be delivered within 14 days ) , the answer from FND and it´s advisors, and a valuation. I think they will try very hard to have the Lerokis Reserve Statement out before that date! As you know, I think any valauation of FND will show, that the value at 3$ for copper is a lot higher, despite the small hickups currently being experienced!

Paringa - is making good progress in construction of their new coal mine, and also the loading station for the barge transport. They also report good progress in marketing the coal - but I think the market will only react to fixed, new off-take agreements. 

Gascoyne - contrary to what I wrote last week, they in fact ARE making a placement today! Obviously, they needed a bit of extra money. As the signing of the bank loan, which was expected for Nov/dec, will now only take place in mid-Dec....Whenever that happens, I have my slight concerns. Anyway - any fund raising now will address these concerns, plus should give them funds for agressive exploration surrounding existing projects Dalgaranga and  I stick with my previous advice, that this is a relatively easy and straightforward project, which will generate excellent returns at the current A$ gold price of just above 1700 A$! 

Marindi - well, no luck in the courts, but luck with conglomerates! They have actually found 60 nuggets in their conglomerates property, just next to Novo Resources´ground. Whatever this will be - for now, the market likes it! I have my reservations....They have a few interesting properties - funny, that they rise ( probably ) based on the least worthy...or shouId be wrong with my very critical and cynical assessment of the conglomerate story!

 

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

General - Finders - Genex - Lithium

Good afternoon

investors are realising, that the world is not going under that quickly...more stbilisation today - equities roughly unchanged, metals stronger again - but still nervous, as witnessed by the late sell-off in a few of them yesterday evening. Interesting, that mining stocks are not falling anymore - I think nobody is overweight, so weak days are being used to take a few more on bord!

US tax-cuts making progress...lower taxes for everybody - wonderful! How much new debt will be added over the next few years! For markets and for now, this is positive - keeps the music playing! Trumo kicking the can down the road - and downhill!

Merkel finding it difficult to form a coalition...hopefully, no fresh election looming, which would induce uncertainty! The Greens are pretty adament, when it comes to the phasing out of coal powered power ( don´t forget: Germany already exited nuclear!! ) and refugees, while the conservative CSU does not want to allow families of refugees to join them here, unless they are really political refugees ( and I have to say, that I support the CSU here! ). The Liberals don´t want to phase out coal, which I tend to support as well. We will find out over the next week or so...one thing is clear: In the moment, Germany as well as Europe are doing extremely well compared to the last 10 years!

The A$ is cracking..new recent low against the US, and against the Euro...that hurts a bit...since eraching a recent high of 1.45 against Euro in July, the Aussie has tanked 11ct to 1.563 in the moment...hard to perform against a falling currency, which naturally hits the entire portfolio - even though it´s certanyl excellent enws for Australian commodity producers, and exports generally. 1.61 against the Euro is the 8-year low - I fear we might test this, at least on the charts - even if it´s hard to believe, that the Aussie falls like that in the middle of a commodity-run!

Interesting to see, who stable the gold price is...the US$ does not seem to have a high correlation currently, and the metal is shrugging off even heave selling like last weeks 4 mill oz within a few minutes, only to retrace most of the losses by now. In A$-terms, it has developed a strong trend and for the first time since May, it´s trading above 1700 A$! Australian stocks are doing well - not only because of the currency, also because of good management and low costs - while GDX and GSXJ have been weak, not to say sick, since early September...also to be seen in Australian companies with foreign projects like RSG , PRU or WAF, who if anything, have been under some pressure as well. I am not quite sure, what to make out of this...but this divergence will not continue forever!

Tesla starting production of an electric truck is sending some positive vibes through metal markets. Recent production experience with their "normal" cars should make us cautious, though...I believe it when I see it!

Genex - received 5 mill$ funding from ARENA, one of the government bodies in Australia to support renewable energy. The funding comes in form of a convertible bond, on extremely generous terms - effectively, it´s an interest rate free loan , which might never get converted.No doubt, that this is a bige xpression of confidence into GNX´s hydro-project. This will also put to an end all doubts, whether GNX will have enough cash in the bank until this project is financed. The Clean Energy Finance Corp, another government body, published a joint video with Genex today - again, they would not doo this without overwhelming support for GNX´s projects. The Stage 1 solar project is well within the time table and should be finsihed ahead of target - ususllay, this also means under budget! The only thing holding back GNX now is the exercise of loaylty options in February. If news will be as good as I believe, that should only provide much needed liquidity for the market! By that time, I think GNX should have a ficed-price off-take agreement with a very senior player, i.e. Queensland Government, AGL or somebody of this calibre. All going well here!!

Finders - has still not rectified all production issues. Some problems with the crusher have beene xperienced - nothing too serious, and no lost production, just a push-out of it. Guidance is now for 4-5.000t og production vs 7.000t target - but still full year production for calendar 2017 23-24.000t at 1.15-1.25 US$/lb C1 costs. EBITDA 2017 has been guided at between 70-80 Mill US$, despite the above problems, and at current copper prices!. This is a cash cow - and 2018 will be better than 2017, approaching 100 mill US$ EBITDA! But I have to admit, that the current problems come at a bad time, when a funny group of Indonesian companies has made a funny and opportunistic bid! The formal bid is still not there - the formal answer from FND will give us a good handle for future profitability. As macquarie is now looking for a balanced market in copper ( i.e. no small supply-overhang anymore! ), the future looks very bright for FND, despite the current problems!

Lithium - Deutsche Bank issued a large research report this week, painting a very cautious picture of the lithium market from 2019. While tehy increased their numbers for total demand for the enxt few years, they are also seeing even more substantial supply coming on progressively next year, and thereafter. They see the price of spodumene fall from the current 800-900 US$/t to 450-500t in a two-three years time. To me that makes sense - costs of cheap producers are around 250-300 US$, leaving a nice margin, still - and just looking at Australian, advanced developers, there is a lot of supply coming soon, and even more so in 2019-2020. Perhaps we should calculate with margins of 200$ rather than with 400$/t, when we do our valuations.

Have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

General - Antipa - Sheffield - Venturex - Gascoyne

Good afternoon

nervous markets calming down today...equities up across the board, metals mixed but generally well supported, and the US$ is stabilizing at slighty stronger levels.

Initial jobless claims in the US higher than expected, but continuing claims lower...Import- as well as Export Price Index lower than expected. Industrial production as well as manufacturing numbers in the States strong!

Cerberus kicking ar.e at the German banks...buying stakes in Commerzbank as well as Deutsche....

VW planning to spend 12 bill US$ until 2025 in China alone on developing and building EV´s with their local JV-partner...want to sell 1.5 mill EV´s p.a. by 2025, based on 40 models...No wonder these guys tried to fix their cobalt-needs for 10 years - but nobody was stupid enough to give it to them . Except for Glencore and the DCR kids mining brigade, nobody else would have been able to anyway, I guess. Whether it makes sense or not - EV´s will be taking off!

Harbour Energy said to prepare a bid worth 11 bill A$ for Santos, one of Australia´s largest oil&gas producers.

Antipa Minerals - announced the maiden resource for their Minayri project, 40km north of Telfer in WA. 11 millt at 2g gold, 0,24% copper and 380 ppm cobalt is a good start. I do like the grade, which is very reasonable, especially including the byproducts. The other major asset of Antipa is a JV with RIO, in the same area, where RIO has spent 8 mill$ so far, and can spend a total of 60 mill$ to earn 75% of the project. AZY had 3.8 mill$ in cash at Quarter end, with 1.6 mill$ planned to be spent this Quarter. I guess they will raise some more cash relatively soon - this could be a good opportunity to buy some stock. Currently, there is drilling activity on several projects  - so accumulating some ahead of any potential placement does make sense. The m,arket cap of AZY is only 27 mill A$ - that´s relatively cheap, and certainly cheap vs a lot of others! I have met the management twice - good and experienced people.

Venturex - was suspended today, awaiting a capital raising. They also announced some more, pretty exciting copper/zinc exploration results from their Sulphur Springs deposit in WA, indicating more and higher grade- resources for them. As I said the other day - some high grade stuff, which could be processed early in the mine life, would prove a big win for them, and potentially completely change project-parameters. The stock has had a good run lately - so I would hope for a nice discount. Northern Star is the largest shareholder - it will be interesting to see, whether they continue to support the project.

Gascoyne - I saw them recently in Australia, and without getting really excited, I like the project as well as the people, after having firstly visited them a year ago. Company has made very good progress - some of the readers might recall having seen them at our resources conference in Zurich. They are good and experienced people, with a sensible board. Construction of their Dalgaranga Mine in WA is in full swing, and first production is planned for June 2018. Production in the first 2 years will be 120.000 ozp.a., and 80.000 thereafter, at average costs of 1000 A$/oz AISC. So far, 650.000oz are in the mine plan, and there is strong exploration potential in the area. To mitigate the risk, they recently sold forward 80.000oz at close to 1700 A$/oz. The company has accepted a debt facility of up to 60 mill A$ , on top of a 55 mill A$ capital raising at 50ct back in March. The project is a very standard, WA gold project, and no problems are expected to bring it into production. No debt has been drawn so far, and as at 30.9., the company had 21 mill$  cash left. They should be fully financed until first production - if they want to agressively continue with exploration, they might need another few million for that ( even though I do not expect any placement just for exploration, given their relatively depressed share price ). GCY have a second project, called Glenburgh, also in WA and with 1.05 mill oz in resources. A pre-feasibility study has been done on it, and will be updated - and again, there is still strong exploration potential. You have this for free, anyway...

GCY should generate something like 50 mill A$ in free operating cash flow from the mine in each of the first two years, enabling them very rapid pay-back of the up to 60 Mill$ in debt ( I assume, that most of it will be drawn ). Market cap is only 160 mill A$, people are good, and the risks are very limited here. You can buy this little stock at a 30% discount to NPV10, and get Glenburgh for free - and on the charts, 40ct should be rock bottom. Despite the limited size of the resource at this stage, I like this one at 42 ct! It will not make you rich - but I see absolutely no reason, why they should not trade at 60ct in 12 month time. If not, they might well end up with somebdy larger!

Sheffield - as you know, they placed 30 mill$ worth of stock at 70ct recently - and now, also their SPP closed heavily oversubscribed - that is pretty rare! SFX have now more cash than needed to push ahead with their project to become a significant producer of zircon and ilmenite in 2 years time - in a market, where supply is gradually shrinking because of exhausted mines, and demand is steadily growing, as reported by major producer, Iluka, on a regular basis. Stage 1 capex is 261 mill US$ - 200 mill US in debt has been organized with Taurus - so including working capital etc, there might be another 60 mill$ needed. The company has been talking for some time to corporates to come in at the project level - this is an event, which I expect to show a more realistic ( = higher ! ) valuation of this company. The big detriment currently is a courtcase by a very small, "dissident" aboriginal group, who have lost twice before. Their case will be heard on the 8th of Dec in the Federal Court, and anything but another defeat would be extraordinary surprising. But no corporate would ever do a deal, with this overhanging. I believe, that SFX are a great stock to accumulate at current levels and between now and the 8th of Dec, which should see a small re-rating, followed by a much nicer move on any potential, corporate action in the 1st Quarter. For anybody with some experience in investing in Mineral Sands, a good story!

Have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

General - Index Changes - Middle Island - Kingsgate - Peak - Pilbara - Evolution

Good afternoon

since yesterday´s report got buried in technical deficiencies of the author, a bit more stuff today...

base metals are getting a very unwelcome, two-day hammering...the same fate happening to the US$ against Euro, European equites...

So - what´s causing this??? A few things coming together...Chinese 10-year bonds are approaching 4% yield ( well, with growth of 6.5%, not that bad, is it?? ), high yield bonds showing some cracks, and the market ahs been a bit disappointed by yesterday´s Chinese numbers: Retail Sales +10% vs exp 10.5%; FAI up by 7,3% as expected; Industrial Production + 6,2% vs 6.3% expected.....really, not that negative! At the same time Xi is targeting quality growth, as opposed to quantity...well, I am not that worried! The Euro has been very strong since the GDP-numbers for Germany got published as +0,8% last Quarter vs expected 0.6% ( the A$ in fact is making new, recent lows against the US! ), and I am dead-sure, that quality growth in China does not imply something like 4% or so....Markets have been very strong in equities around the world, and very strong in the metals this year - so I think all the above have just given investors some reason to be a little cautious and take some chips off the table. I hope, that I am right here! As the day progresses, metal prices are also recovering now from the day´s lows - some are already green again on my screen!

Airbus gets the largest order ever for 50 bill US$ worth of planes...

Tencent delivers a stunningly good result

Mugabe seems to be a story of the past... a lot of people will be very happy with that!! The old bastard tried to install his wife - that apparently was too much for the military to bear, and they took control. Let´s hope, that this is not just one bad gang throwing out the old bad gang! I guess chances for this are pretty high, though!

Freeport in real trouble, as it looks...at Grasberg, a police officer got killed, anotehr injured on Wednesday - yesterday, a company driver got hurt - all by separists. The road got closed, the mine  - so far - is operating as normal. Like Kingsgate - a messy story gets messier! If you have the time, do what I did yesterday - have a look at youtube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjg_SVHdrWQ     This takes 50 min - but fascinating indeed for mining-lovers! About the history of the Grasberg Mine ....

Index Changes - Pilbara Mines as well as Lynas are widely tipped to be included in the ASX 200 on next review in December....LYC has already been announced as new member of the MSCI. Especially the latter will add quite a bit of buying.

Middle Island - reported an interesting drilling result: 508m wit 1.38g gold/t, incl 160m with 2.3g. Previous drilling had delivered similar results. The mineralised system measures now 250m of strike, up to 90m of width, and at least 700m in depth - that is pretty substantial and could yield 1.5 mill oz. The resource could well be amenable to sub-level cave mining - the future will tell. The company had previously done some metallurgical work, resulting in recoveries of 93%. I am not sure, whether I would rush out and buy the stock - but for me as a holder, this is pretty good news in light of only 12 mill$ market cap, and an A$ gold price not far away from all-time highs!

Kingsgate - the new , major shareholder Metal Tiger, a small, LOndon-listed mining investor, has made demands for an AGM to be called, to replace the current Chairman, Ross Smyth-Kirk, and two other directors, and to install three metal Tiger representatives on KCN´s board. While I can understand investors, who are not happy with the last few years at KCN, this would be sort of a takeover by somebody, who has just 6,7% of Kingsgate....strange. Could this potentially replace a board, which has not been all that great, with a board comprised of investors with their own agenda??? I will make more enquiries and will report my view later...there is no hurry to act, as the Extraordinary General Meeting will be at least 1 montha way. One thing is for sure - a messy story gets messier!!

Peak Resources - the interim CEO, Rocky Smith, got appointed as CEO now. He is the previous Managing Director of Molycorp´s Mountain Pass operations and is one of the few, western mangers to have run a rare Earth operation. As you know, the situation in Tanzania is not easy - but some progress has already been instigated, and I think there might be some light at the end of the tunnel, enabling some serious investment in the country, once again. 

Pilbara Mines - had a longer chat to the company today, as there are some very different forecasts out there. For sure is following: The company will start production in the second Quarter calendar 2018, and should need about 6 month to ramp up to full production of roughly 350.000t of spodumene ( that is lithium concentrate with 6% content ). The company has no bank debt, only bonds, and should have about 30 mill$ in cash left, once in production. That should provide for any potential comissioning problems, which I do not expect to occur anyway. Some time within the next 6 month, the company shoudl also be able to make a decision re Stage 2 of the project, for which substantial off-take agreements already exist, including financing agreements with those off-takers for an aggregate of 100 mill$. Stage 2 should cost about 130 mill$ - so with a positive decision to go ahead, the financing is almost secured. While banks have so far been relatively reluctant to lend to lithium projects, the fact, that the sector is rapidly maturing, should change this. A few days ago, PLS have also announced a MOU with South Korean major LG Chem for a potential 300.000t pa JV to produce Lithium Hydroxide, which is the material needed by battery producers ( by the way, approx 7.5 t spodumene are needed for 1t of lithium hydroxide ). This JV would take basically what might be left over in available production of Stage 2 ( total production planned at Stage 2 is approx 500.000t of spodumene p.a. ). Just by doing back-on-the-envelope numbers on Stage 1 + Stage 2-production of a minimum of 800.000t p.a. of spodumene at a conservative AISC of 300 US$/t and a current price of 800-900US$/t for spodumene, gives you potential cash generation of a minimum of 500 US$/t. Multiply this with 800.000t, and potential cash generation in say calendar year 2020 could be 400 mill US$.....This stock is still not expensive at all!! Worth having a very good look at it!

Evolution Mining - and as we are doing back-on-the-envelope calculations.....Good old Evolution is generating about a 900A$ margin of gold price vs AISC.....even adding 100$ for development capital, the margin should still be 800A$ at the mine gate...at 750-800.000oz of yearly production for the enxt few years , that adds up to a very nice 600 mill A$ at the mine gate - that is pre headoffice ( 30 mill? ), exploration ( 50 mill?), debt-servicing and dividends. So before debt and div, the company should ahve free cash of 520 mill A$ .....that´s massive....and as there are not that many aquisition targets around, dividends could become a real joy for EVN´s shareholders !!

Have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons