Good afternoon
equity markets very strong today - I guess hoping for a decisive Biden-win, which would be followed by a mega-large spending budget? Or are markets betting on a surprise Trump-win? I have no idea - we will all know by tomorrow!! ( well, hopefully! )
Factory Orders as well as Durable Goods Orders in the US were up and bang in line.
Oil is very strong - Brent re-gained the 40$-level…basically making the huge loss late last week forgotten!
But there is also some uncertainty left, as gold is up and trading at 1906 in the moment
The US$ is weaker against the Euro - but much weaker against the A$. Australia´s Reserve Bank announced to join the club today, and will buy 100 bill A$ in government bonds…
Base metals are having a good day as well - so everybody is happy except of the bond-guys…US benchmark yield is approaching 0,9% - probably in anticipation of large spending programs after the election!
China wants to push the takeup of EV´s harder, which should increase demand for nickel and copper. Citi is expecting nickel to hit at least 16500$/t after the US-election.
Everybody enjoying a long lunch in Australia today, with the Melbourne Cup ( and a true, good old-styled long lunch with a few bottles of red ! ) in everybodies mind! Perfect timing 3 pm start, just late enough to make it NOT back to the trading desk for a market close at 4 pm! So not all that much happening today…
The biggest and also worst news have been Chinese newspaper articles, which suggest, that China will suspend imports of copper ore, wine and several other goods as a new step in the deteriorating, Austral/Chinese relationship! Let´s hope, that this won´t have an impact on Australia´s decision to allow investment in Sheffield´s mineral sand project!
Have a nice election night and fasten the seat belts!
WS