Market Update

Strike Energy - Genex Power - Metro Mining - Graphex - Northern Star - Oceana

Good afternoon

a solid rebound in equities today, as well as some metals...

Highfield - update on enviromental approval...the company is telling us, that only one small issue is left for their revised application...and this should be done by early July. Knowing the Spanish, I think they will go on collective holidays a few weeks later - so at the earliest, we should expect enviromental approval in September. And then we will need the final mining lease, the financing, another placement.....I am becoming very cynical and have been waiting just too long!!

Strike Energy - I have been waiting for much longer here - but the price is big, and I feel increasingly confident! Jaws 1 has been extremely effective....all looking excellent....pumping starting soon, probably early July....and the company has learnt a lot. Some smart people have woken up to the story, I am told - and Strike can still profit from fantastic outlook for East Coast gas markets. Their recent little transaction in Western Australia, to buy 50% of the West Erregulla Gas Project, is also gaining acceptance and some blue-chip interest from large players, I believe. This could be much more than just a fall-back position, in case the East Coast stuff does not work. The share price is also showing much improved confidence, having forund a new range between 10-11ct. Our patience might well  be rewarded here! 

Genex - finally, some great news here!!! The Northern Australia Infrastructur Fund is offering conditional financing to the tune of 516 Mill A$ in subordinated debt!!! The numbers have not been finalised - but capex should be around 600 mill$ + diverse pre-payments for connection to the grid, I guess 700 mill in total ( pure guesswork! ). The gap will be fileld by senior debt, and I am sure, also some equity - be the latter from Genex, or ptential partners. The fact, that the 516 mill$ are subordinated, is a major advantage!! And the company has indicated, that the debt maturity will be more than 20 years - I guess 25 years, at very reasonable interest rates. The conditions are all as you would expect - the main conditions are agreements on off-take, and conenction to  the grid. Both these issues have been worked on for some time, and will hopefully be nailed down within the next two month. 

The company got a lot of press, radio and TV coverage today - I am sure, that research-updates with increased price targets for GNX will follow this major derisking-event. as you know, I am heavily invested - so I am talking my book - but I honestly see much better times ahead for this little company!

Metro Mining - completed a heavily bid-for placement today! The raising was larger than expected - 17.5 mill$ including some oversubscription - and had an element of "this needs to be the very last equity" with it. On back-on-the-envelope numbers, the company probably would have not badly needed any adiitional funds - but that´s without the slightest hick-up, storm or some other unforeseen event. They have had some small comissioning-issues, but freinds,  who very recently visited the mine, came back very happy. The major risk now is probably, that the spot-sales ( outside of the contracted bauxite ) need more time to ramp up, and to gain acceptance in the market. Again, this would also be a very temporary issue. The cost advantages of MMI-bauxite vs bauxite out of Guinea ( China´s major supplier ) are just too massive. At 21ct, this stock is a steal! I participated in the placement at 20ct.

Graphex Mining - update today., and was not well received! The market was missing a mentioning of the Chinese interest in a JV , as the news was about alternative financiers. They need more drilling, and certainly more clarity from the Tnzanian government on fiscal terms. Currently, they are very vague only. I have spoken to Grapex today - the Chinese are still interested, buta re also waiting for fiscal terms to be announced. The government has actually asked Graphex to help them in finding a solution to their fiscal reuirements - they want numbers not only from other African countries, but also others. They also need to understand better, how project finance works around the world, and what project financiers need to be satisfied. But overall, the tone is very friendly and open. The negative for me: We will most probably not have a solution here within 4 weeks - I would rather expect 3-4 month. Bad enough - but the price is still high: the real value of his stock is probably 5-6-7-8x current price, if they can get the project going! 

The market in graphite is very opaque - hence it´s important to hear, that Chinese companies are still very hungry for GPX´s product. Prices are also holding up at recent highs - which are more than 50% higher than prices used in GPX´s feasibility study. An update to this study will be finalised in July.

Northern Star - have already exceeded the top of their forecast range for oz produced, with still 10 days to go this month. Costs will be as expected, between 1000-1050 A$ AISC. 

Oceanagold- have also increased guidance for this year from 480-500 to 500.000-530.000 ounces. All operations, but especially Didipio, are doing well. As I mentioned before - the stock is good value down here, I think!

Have a nice evening



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