Good afternoon
sorry..I have to be a bit short today...
Industrial Production in Germany surprisingly strong, up by 1% vs expected 0,8% - that´s up by 3.2% YoY.
Chinese Export numbers were strong - imports even stronger...
The US$ is very strong against Euro as well as A$ - metals are actually holding up well - copper weak and down by 1%.
Dimon sees a very real chance of the 10-year bond falling to a yield of 4%, and I guess he is right so - historically and leaving the last 10 years aside, that is still relatively low! Since 1960, the average yield of the US 10 year has been 6,2%! - since early 2000, it has been 3,45% ( and that obviously includes all QE after the financial crisis )!
Nevsun under Siege from Lundin and Euro Sun, who were prepared to pay a 30% premium in a joint bid, which was turned dowen
Genex - have a new MD! This was actually a surprise for me - well kept secret! The old MD, co-founder Michael Addison, remains a non-executive director of the company. The new CEO, James Harding, has been GNX´s Executive General Manager since June 2016, and had a major role in building Stage 1 of the solar project. He has extensive experience in this space. The move looks very friendly and must have been planned for some time, as a new board member has also been announced: Teresa Dyson, ex-project finance and M&A lawyer, with several board seats in the energy and infrastructur space. I do not know her, but she seems to be a very strong, new director of the company with a great skill-set for what will be needed at GNX.
In the meantime , generation of the Stage1 solar project is increasing as planned.In March, the capacity factor was 25%, in April 31% - analysts have been using 33% long term, and that looks to be reached this month. So called "practical completion" had been scheduled for July, and should be easily achieved.
Gascoyne - very nice announcement today - even though not really unexpected. Ore comissioning of the new plant has started - they expect the first gold pour in Mid-May....that is a very good result, 6 weeks ahead of plan, and also under budget. Now we are off to the finish....all should be fine, and I guess we will know in a few weeks or say 2 month, whether grades are coming in as planned as well as recoveries. This is all pretty much standard - but we certainly have seen mines in the past, where "standard" did turn out to be a nightmare! But no indication at all for this here - Dalgaranga should make some very good money, and Gascoyne whould rerate over the next few month. Exploration will also be of interest - my impression is, that the company has been holding back in spending cash - that has changed, and drilling is in full swing.
Strike - the company is very positive on their well....They actually do not see the current tech ique as the second choice - but apparently, it has been the riskier choice, and they only took it out of necessity. Anyway - all going well, fracking should start in 1.5 weeks...and then we will wait! Once fracking has been completed, it will be another de-risking event....after that, "only" flow-testing. The chairman has bought another million shares as well. While thi is not all that much money for him, he is the type of guy who hates loosing some! In any case - 8ct feels a lot better than 5.5ct....and once we are in double digits here, I will start to feel better after a very long time!!!! As you all know - this is really ( nearly ) all-in.....the stock will not go to zero in case of fracking not working - but on the other side, this is a very large gas deposit, and the upside would be dramatic.
Have a nice evening
WS
WS
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