Market Update

General - Metro Mining - Regis - Crusader

Good afternoon

Manufacturing PMI for China a little weaker again - only just in growth territory. I am on kids-duty from now - so please check the US PMI yourself, which will be published later this afternoon.

The new NAFTA agreement between US/Mexico/Canada inspires markets positively today. European equities are stronger, metals are seeing some weakness - China not helping I guess

Metro Mining - there has been a large seller throughout September, selling 5.5 mill shares - it appears as they have finished. Aluminium, but especially Alumina- prices holding up very well - the majority of MMI´s sales is priced as a percentage of Alumina, which has been great so far, and is also looking good for the enxt 12 month. Margins should be better than expected at this important first year of production, which consisted mainly of ramping up and fine-tuning. I think in terms of cash flow, this is one of the cheapest, established miners in my universe - might well be the cheapest. The company is still not very well known, and bauxite is also not a widely followed commodity. I think now is the time to buy more, below 20ct.

Regis - have dropped teh takeover bid for Capricorn, as their major shareholder Hawke´s Point has not agreed - their acceptance was one condition of RRL´s bid. Maybe they will come back at a later stage - for now, the deal is off! In my opinion, this asset is certainly worth less on a stand-alone basis. Have Hawke´s POint ( a private equity fund ) have pokered high and lost? Looks that way. For the patient inevstor, CMM is probably approaching buying-levels again. Just makes too much sense for RRL to own this one - even though it´s not a great asset.

Crusader - have run into trouble! Stock was suspended on AIM because tehy have failed to raise fresh equity in September, which seems to be necessary to ensure an orderly operation. Company sais, that they are in discussions with equity-and debt providers, as well as on asset sales. What a desaster! Watch this space….but any of the above actions are very unpleasant, if your back is against the wall - and a bloody big rock in front of your nose!

Unfortunately, not much to report today….

Have a nice evening


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