Market Update

General - Cobalt - Phillippines - Oceana - Crusader - Beadell - Highfield

Good afternoon

oh boy! What a day! my stocks are racing...Panoramic, Peak, Lucapa, Highfield putting on big runs today!

Clinton and Trump fighting it out yesterday - the ugly faces of distrust vs racism! As you would have expected - she won on having done her homework - he won on playing to the voters, who are fed up with the political "elite"....depending whom you listen to. In any case - this thing is close, and it puts the spotlight on a country, which is deeply devided. I guess every country has the leaders it deserves....And I sincerely hope, that I do not have to use this phrase, when I talk about the German elections next year! 

Deutsche Bank is crawling on it´s knees and is dragging others with them...I am not hearing anything positive about them! I am sure, that Deutsche Bank will not go bust - if the US really impose 14 bill US on them, somebody will either take them out, or bail out....but I am surprised, that investors are still having so much face in the system, and that gold is not going any higher today than it is!

The really big news today have been from the Phillippino government....Mrs.Lopez has either closed or has threatened to close 75% of the countries´ mines...55% of the countries nickel ore miens could be affected, that´s about 11% of the world´s nickel production. The government will meet with individual mines of the coming weeks and tell them, what respective changes to enviromental or social practices are expected to be fulfilled, to stay open. I guess news will gradually filter through. nickel and zinc are slightly stronger today, but way down from highs reached earlier on in the day, oil is giving up yesterday´s gains. As you would expect, nickel stocks very strong today in Australia, once the news came out after lunch Australian time.

Interesting article by Macquarie: The majority of coal traders are expecting met coal to stay very high for the rest of this year, and still much higehr than currently expected in 2017. They are less positive for thermal coal and do not believe, that the recent price rise will be sustainable.

Cobalt - interesting article in the Australian Financial Review, which has picked up on the strongly rising use of lithium-ion batteries - they all need cobalt. Most of the cobalt production is coming from the Democratic Republic of Kongo - a brave battery-producer, who will rely on that! To my knowledge, the only other production of cobalt is coming from by-product, especially in nickel mines. Panoramic for example will be producing about 500t of cobalt p.a., once and if back in production. Cobalt prices have not done anything for a while, since coming down from lofty prices of up to 50$/lb historically, to 13-14 US$/lb these days. For somebody like Panoramic, additional by-product credits from cobalt would be around 20 mill$ p.a. at current prices, but could go as high as 42 mill A$, if cobalt would trade at 30 US$ at some stage. Anyway..could / would / should....but it´s another wild card for my friends. I had to sell very few today, as to the large size of my position...But I will keep as many as I am allowed to, as the move today has only been the starting point, in my opinion. Just look at their wonderful chart!!

Oceana - suspended, as their excellent project Didipio  has been targeted by the Phillipnes for potential suspension.  The company will only be able to get more clarity on the demands over the enxt few days. In my opinion - and I ahve not visited the mine - it´s complete nonsens, and Oceana have received a lot of praise in the past for their social engagement, as well as for their enviromental responsibility. But I can remember from the old days, when Oceana hs been waiting for approvals for a long time, how irrational some NGO´s and the church can be in the Phillippines. Hard to deal with people, who are irrational - and hard to know the eventual outcome, when youi ahve counterparts like Mrs.Lopez on the otehr side of the table! My best wishes to the company, to get things´s very undiserved, and very bad for local people ( 98% of workforce of 1800 are from the area, or at lest from the region ). Only time will tell...

Crusader - completed a very dilutive, 8.5 Mill$ placement at 13ct to isntitutional investors very easily - placement significantly oversubscribed. Retail shareholders will have the opportunity to subscribe for up to 15.000$ at the same price, to raise another 1.5 mill$. As dilutive as it is - I think the placement is very good news for CASA. They will pay back 1 mill of the 3.5 mill in debt, and will have about 8.5 mill$ to play with in exploration for Juruena, and get Borborema to a stage, where they can JV- or sell it. The company has been spending about 1.3 mill$ in exploration/ Quarter this year - basically all for Juruena - and another Quarter should bring it to a stage, where they can borrow a few million $ ( needed are less than 10 mill$ in toal for the plant etc , from what I have heard ) to bring this potential money spinner into production. But I also would like to point out, that they will have problems to come back to the market, if they don´t use these funds for significant progress with Juruena, Borborema, and Posse. No excuses forgiven! I also subscribed for a few.

Beadell - have appointed a Head of Corporate Development...well, this half year will tell us, whether they have done their home work at the existing mine! But obviously, and as always expected, these guys want to go on the aquisition trail! The guy who was appointed, used to be the Head of Capital Markets for Scotia - he will know, how to raise moeny, and could certainly do his bit to increase awareness of Beadell. I am still a shareholder - and I think the stock is undervalued - but I do not like all I see....

Highfield - don´t ask me, why they are running so hard - but don´t ask me either, why they fell so hard earlier on! The only explanation I have : two provincial elections in Spain last weekend. In each case, the old, conservative party won - the socialists lost votes, once again. There has ben noisy criticism from outside, but also from inside the socialist party, and the pressure has increased for Sanchez  to finally do a deal with Rajoy. This would be major good news for Highfield, as their enviromental approval has been on ice, since the country  had a care-taker government.

Have a nice evening

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