General - lithium/Liontown - Genex - Regis/IGO

Good afternoon

equity markets are relatively quiet today, without big change. But metals are weaker - China is making noises - following some producer price infaltion numbers above expectations - to try to limit price advances in commodities.

Some action in Australia:

Regis - are apparently buing 30% of the Tropicana mine from IGO for 900 mill A$. That´s top dollars for this asset, and about 10% higehr then markete xpectations. RRL are buing an asset at minimum full price, and are financing it largely with a placement 15% below it´s current share price…that´s at least teh rumour from the newspapers! They are buying a minority stake in a good asset, but without control and probably, it´s also a relatively well explored asset…no synergies either! I find this a very doubtful deal, to say the elast. Good deal for IGO! And good to see, that others like Evolution, who reportedly have also been a bidder, are not prepared to py top $!!

Genex - very highly regarded small cap fund Paradice have bought 50 mill shares at 20ct to be the second, institutional shareholder! And apparently the other large bidders in the placement recently - again according to the newspapers - have been two of the richest Australians, the founders of Atlassian! Nice endorsement!

Lithium - Macquarie have published a very bullish paper on all types of lithium. The much stroner than expected uptake of EV´s will lead to shortages of lithium from 2022. What is even more interesting, they argue, that most of the new supply is already hoovered up by offtake agreements with mainly large, Chinese companies, leaving very little material for users, which have notassured themselves of any more supply. This should be very bullish for Liontown, which are the only guys in Australia - as I believe - with a large, uncontracted resource. In fact, this looks increasingly like a top-class project, as indicated by the update of the final feasibility study work the other day. One of teh few brokers following it, Bridgestreet, estimated a NPV of 90ct for them, based on a fully integrated operation to produce lithium hydroxide. They used 12.000 US$ as a long term price for the product - Macquarie is now estimating a price of 16.800 in 2026, and a long term price of 15.000 US$/t!! I think LTR are a great investment, and I am holding a reasonable position in my fund. I am also holding Mineral Resources, which is currently making a killing in iron ore, but will increasingly make very substantial prodits from it´s world class lithium assets in Western Australia.

Have a nice evening

WS

General - Strike Energy - Marvel Gold

Good afternoon

Not all that much happening in equity markets today…they are generally just green…and the same for bonds, which in my view, are defying gravity…

Base metals are looking quite strong today

Gold seems to bottom out and is bulding a nice little base. Gold ETF still see outflows, but at a reduced pace. Will the next move be inflows?? That would be very positive I think. Gold is trading at 1756 US$ currently!!

Strike Energy - came out of supsension with good news today! The well has reached total depth of just over 5000m…and has foudn what tehy wanted to find: A strong gas colum, with relatively high porosity and high enough - but not ultra-high -pressure, all of which augurs well for the testing to be done over the enxt 4 weeks or so. People I have spoken to are very happy and expect, if anything, an increase of resource estimates. they also expect enough clarity to enable a Fina Investment decision ( FID ) some time this European summer! People are also of the view, that the geological enviroment tehy have found at West Erregulla 4 supports STX´s view , that Erregulla South ( which is 100% owned by STX ) is also gas-bearing ( the upside here is at least a doubling of resources for STX ). Without going into too much technical detail, which none of us does understand anyway, I think this validates STX as a takeover target or alternatively, as a significant, Western Australia-based, potential gas producer. They can change the landscape by enabling completely new , energy-intensive industries in WA, which are badly needed to reduce the overwhelming dependance from iron ore. The enxt triggers will be etst ersults, a new resource estimate, FID and also the potential announcement of a JV-partner for Proejct Haber, the urea project. All of the above should enable our company to increase in value!!! Broker estimates I have seen have not been increased as yet - staying at around the mid-forties….But they are also talkingabout potential upside to this valuation!

For now, many investors are sitting on nice profits, and there might be a lack of new buyers. But institutional investors no doubt are watching this one . the market cap is now large enough with 600 mill A$ / the board is top-class / upside is still substantial/ and teh stock continues to be de-risked and is now coming into a risk-profile, which should enable institutional investment. I will continue to hold - still difficult to find stories with similar upside, at a very much reduced risk-profile!

Marvel Gold - the old Graphex…..the story comes back to it´s origin! To remind you, the company has so far delineated a resource of 900.000oz at 1,2g gold/t, which is still a bit skinny to develope it. But recent drilling results have been very positive, with regards to size as well as grade of the deposit, and should most probably add to this resource. I think the company is well on the way to establish a 1.1-1.2 mill oz resource, and they are not finished yet! The market cap of 27 mill A$ at the current price of 0,053 A$ makes them look cheap, based on the gold deposit. I saw some Canadian broker research recently, which quoted an average resource value of 60 Can$/oz gold. IF MVL can prove, that tehy are well on the way to establish a stand-alone operation in Mali, their valuation should move in that direction.

But this leaves the old graphite project in tanzania valued at nothing!! As you might remember, there is an approx 9 mill$ loan oustanding to a North American Private Equity fund, secured by this project. So anything beyond that valuation will acrue to MVL shareholders. Looking at the recent run-up of share prices in stocks like EcoGraf or Black Rock, with similar projects, there is very substantial upside to 9 mill $…possibly several times this amount. And I feel much more positive towards the country: The new Prime Minister makes all the right noises…attracting investment, getting the mining-related problems with Barrick and otehrs in order, replacing some of the old guard. We have ssen this before - but Tanzania is on it´s knees, and soomething has to happen to get this country out of it´s mess!

So - at least an interesting one to watch - the upside is speculative, but could be substantial I am a reasonably large shareholder, still.

Have a nice evening!

WS

General - Oklo - Panoramic - Foran

Good afternoon

the world is looking good for resources!!

As Jamie Dimon said today: We could be in for a strong upswing which could well last into 2023! The IMF increasing it´s forecast to 6% for world GDP - which might look conservativ! PMI´s, labor market looking very very strong in the US, the FED and the ECB are still printing as fast as they possibly can, and Biden is doing the rest! And in 2022, we will have Europe moving strongly out of the COVID-situation. And on top of it, we have a rampant market for EV´s, and Brazil increasingly in trouble….the world is looking so good for resources, that I wonder about the next Black Swan!

I am amazed, that the bond market is holding it´s level more recently…the only possible reason I have for this: Never fight the FED…the old rule still seems to hold. But I certainly see some strong risks from this side of the equation. For now, I think the market is certainly expecting some inflationary pressures - but investors are seeing them ( if they eventuate ) as temporary. Let´s hope, that they are right. Under those circumstances we are in absolute goldilocks: Strong growth, no real inflation - so the entire market can continue to ove - cyclicals as well as tech´s.

Overall - my instinct tells me: Fantastic - but a little too good to be true!

Gold might be a good investment , if my instincts are right…certainly good to have some!

Panoramic - finally, tehy have made the formal decision to go ahead with Savannah, and start ming again in August, which si one month later than I had assumed. A few surprises here: Panoramic will not only use a contractor to run the mine ( by the way, with brand new equipment! ), but also one to run the plant! Only 40 Panoramic-employees. This will substantially derisk ( in light of a very tight labor market in Western Australia ) a restart of Savannah, which ahs been derisked as much as it otherwise could anyway…

Costs will be a little higehr because of using a contractor , but I still support PAN´s decision here. The contractor will be incentivised to do the job well - i.e. with regards to recoveries as well as throughput. And tehre is yet anotehr derisking built into teh start-up: The company will mine a 100.000t stockpile first, before starting the plant….Understandable - you do not want to run a contractor running the plant and pay him, and have a risk of not having enough ore. This decision will delay first cash flow to December.

The company has also signed a new offtake agreement from 2023, once the current agreement matures, with Trafigura. Trafigury will extend vearious credit lines top Panoramic, without hedging, and light on covenants + competitive interest rates, totalling 45 mill US$. That will be more than enough…PAN expect only to use 41 mill A$ at the worst.

Overall - I really like PAN, as you know. Savannah is a top asset, long mine life competitive costs - but the upside is capped because of new nickel market developments over the last few month. So the stock IS cheap - but we will not see it doubling and trippling . Well doubling perhaps in a takeover….I continue to own a very large psoition in PAN.

Foran Mining - some ore excellent drilling results out today. 22m with 2,71% CuEq and 8.7m with 2,11% CuEq are exactly what it needs to increase the resource to the shorter term target of 20 millt….As you know, there are not so many great copper/zinc resources with some gold in top jurisdictions and undeveloped as yet…At current commdity prices, FOM are still cheap as crazy as it sounds ( after having gone up by more than 13x from the lows last year ). But the stock also feels a bit tired and probably will treat some water here.

Oklo Resources - the stock came back to earth by delivering a maiden resource in line with expectations! The total resource now stands at 11.3 millt at 1,83g for 670.000oz, of which 69% are already in measured&indicated category. This is a pretty good, maiden resource - but the stock was probably a bit rich before, as the market might have been hoping for better grades, given all these wonderful high grades drilling results! But this is not the end - the company has 15 mill A$ in cash and will keep on drilling….And one should not forget two large neighbours within trucking distance. I think the current weakness makes the stock atractive again.

Have a nice evening

WS

General - Foran - Osino - Chalice

Good afternoon

markets are feeling vulnerable…COVID-situation in Europe seems to be never ending, China having the foot on the brakes, inflation outlook mixed at best, semiconductur shortage affecting some industries, and now this useless Suez-story, which is interrupting 11% of wodl trade…and tax-hikes in the States increasingly in focus…

Equities are weaker across the borad, base metals as well…investors having to push recovery expectations - certainly for Europe - out by anotehr few month! And China is trying to dampen commodity prices - not helping base metals today, which are seeing some profit-taking anyway because of the strong US$. I am not becoming bearrish, but in all tehse markets we might come down a bit further, before we can go up again.

Gold is holding surprisingly strong in the context of a strong US$ and never ending ETF-outflows.

Durable Good Orders yesterday not good in the States - but labor market numbers today were quite good.

Foran Mining - landed a coup by attracting highly regarded ESG-expert Jean Rogers to it´s board! Institutional investors do like this kind of news !

Osino - my other Canadian investment is extremely active this year. Infill-drilling, what they call brownfield-drilling, and some wildcard drilling to test completely untested targets for up to 75.000m this year, spending 17 mill Can$ on exploration of their Namibian gold project. The maiden resource should come out over the next month or so - some people are expecting/hoping for 2 mill Oz, which would be very impressive at this early stage. We should see some numbers within a month, or latest by the end of May. Grades will be important here as well. There project has been shaping up as a large tonnage/low grade deposit ( even though they have drilled some nice intersections recently ) - average grade of 1g or 1.2g is making a big difference here, especially as the gold price has retreated somewhat from recent highs! Depending on the outcome of the maiden resource , m&a might become a reality for Osino - the North American market has seen quite a few smaller- and midsized deals recently, and strong cash flow for many companies is making them look at growth options.

Chalice - has done some work now on the area to the North of their exisiting find. EM as well as soil sampling has delivered numerous , highly interesting targets. Those are in a forestry reserve, and so far, the comnpany has been allowed some basice exploration, without any drilling. Approvals here would be very positive for the stock. In any case, CHN have given strong indications once again, that they might be up to something big!

Have a nice evening!

WS