Good afternoon
back now - just a few important developments for today…and more over the next few days.
In my absence since about the turn of the month, we have seen another big run in bonds…this market is continuing to move in unchartered territory!! German 10year yields now -0,66%, and Australian yields under 1%. Gold has continued to strengthen, helped by interest rates, the Hongkong “terrorists”, this big US mad-man and general uncertainty. And equities have finally dropped a bit - macro news around the world has been pretty negative. But ultra-low yields look like they can hold the market at a very high level. There is still no real alternative to investment in equities - so the basic story is unchanged!
Base metals have been under some pressure - no surprise in light of a weakening world economy! There is one pleasant exemption: nickel! Renwed talk and speculation about an earlier than expected resumption of the Indonesian export ban for nickel ore has spooked the market, and the nickel price is at a level originally expected for 20212 or so…best prices in US$ since late 2014, and in A$ terms since mid-2011 ( 10,50 A$/lb! ). Macquarie for e xample are using an A$ price of 10,33 A$/lb for 2021/2022 .
Our sector has also been helped greatly by the A$, which is trading below 0,68 US$ and is currently at least 5ct below levels used by analysts! Who would have expected an A$ gold price of 2200 A$/oz??!! No wonder that gold equities have had a great run, though they are now trading 10% or so below the top-level reached recently.
Explorers have continued to find some interest - and I think some of them could still run quite a bit further if this gold price holds. established producers are making a lot of cash - and corpoarte action is still very active: Today Echo Resources got suspended amid a potential change of corporate control here. Probably largest shareholder Northern Star making a move?? Echo´s last market cap was 175 mill A$ - I am sure, that most of this money would find it´s way back to the market.
Panoramic - Peter Harold is leaving his baby after nearly 17 years, some time between now and mid next year. This will depend on a successfull ramp-up pf Savannah, and the timing of a new MD starting. Peter is leaving voluntary - that´s important, because otherwise, I would expect some negative news from the operational front! But I understand, that the company is very confident of the ramp-up making good progress, and first ore from the new Savannah North ore body will hit the plant much earlier than by the end of this year. Obviously, the fantastic nickel price is also helping cash flow. I cannot categorically rule out, that the company will need a few million $ more to get there - but so far, there is no indication of this being necessary execpt for the share price! Obviously, the market is expecting another capital raising, or a crashing nickel price. I think confidence will rise, once ore from Savannah North is being put through the plant! And not to forget: Horizin Gold is running nicely, but is trading far from fair value. If I remember correctly, the company was listed at 40ct a few years ago - at a time of much lower gold price, before the recently announced and quite significant increase of resources, and before the base metal find Altair, which could well develope into something. I continue to hold both stocks, and I think both should be bought at 34ct!!!
Strike Energy - I expressed my relief on this one before the holidays - and the stock has continued to run very nicely to a 5-year high of 14.5-15ct as at today! Fantastic! But also fair to say, that the last 5ct are based on hope of hitting either success in the primary zone - of which we should know about later next week! - and / ore Jaws , their second project. All credit to the MD, Stuart Nicholls, and I believe previous board member Tim Goyder, who aquired the West Erregulla project, which now looks so good. I believe, that the market is gaining confidence as the company has exactly forecasting everything which happend so far! No doubt, that JV partners will need fresh money - the drilling has taken some time for reasons out of the companies control, and such a mssive drilling rig is costed on a per day/basis. But if the primary target will be hit within the enxt two weeks - and I think this is very conservative - all will be fine and they will raise funds North of 20ct!!
Much more to talk about - but give me a day to digest/
have a nice evening
WS