Market Update

General - Graphex - and again, the Prairie-saga

Good afternoon

Goldmans believe, that there is more downside to metal prices in the short term, because of the asset class being singled out by investors as the one toplay, when it comes to more bad news from the US tariff debacle. Fundamentally, they believe the metals to be cheap.

US 10-year bonds are weaker again - trading just below 3% yield...the wage number from Friday is still taking it´s toll, and a bit of talk about inflation around! But if you think, that this talk should help gold - wrong - nothing happening , but base metals got weaker later in the European afternoon.

Market talk with regards to Electric Vehicles has changed over the summer holidays...while previously, cobalt and lithium had been singled out to be the hottest commodities with regards to strongly rising takeup of electric vehicles over the next few years, consumers of the stuff are now getting more concerned about nickel ( where Scott Mackenzie is expecting 28.000 US$/t in 2-3 years ) and graphite, where the ongoing start-up problems of Syrah have raised concerns about supply. This brings me to little

Graphex Mining - which will not really produce the type of graphite needed in the battery industry, but in the Chinese building industry. Legislative changes there require companies to include expandable graphite as a flame retardent for certain building materials, as you might remember. This legislationhas not really been inforced so far - very similar to the strict enviromental laws in China, which in fact have been inforced and are bing inforced progressively now. We have seen the massive impact of tehse changes in coal and irone ore, especially, where the world market has subsequently seen some profound changes. In graphite, the material needed is simply not available so far - some observers have been quoted as 2 millt p.a. being required in a few years time. Little Graphex Mining is only planning to produce 50.000t p.a. initially, and doubling up a few years later.

Their major problem has been so far, that the saga surrounding Acacia/Barrick has made Tanzania a non-investable, and even worse, a non-financable country. This is changing!!! And faster, than I feared! Little Australian company Walkabout Resources have very recently recived their Mining License for a graphite project, and Black Rock Mining have received their Enviromental License. So - things are happening again in Tanzania! Also, last weeks large , African mining conference in Perth had a surprise attendant: The Tanzanian, Deputy Minister of Mines. The country had previously not been seen at any of the large, African mining conferences for years - and he made all the right noises as well!

You might remember, that the originally planned, Chinese JV-partner dropepd of GPX´s list, as they were not happy with Tanzania, and the uncertain enviroment there, leading GPX to intensify talks with Private Equity guys, who in the meantime, have been doing extensive studies on the project. It is public knowledge, that an updated feasibility study, and a financing proposal have been worked on for a few month now. I am expecting at least the updated study,and hopefully a conditional financing to be announced in the very short term - next month or so. If anything, the demand for GPX´s product, expandable graphite, is looking healthier than ever, and prices are still very strong - certainly stronger than the price deck used in the original feasibility study. More detail about prices, the exact quality of product, operating costs and capex will be known, once the feasibility study is out in a few weeks time. But you might remember, that analyst reports have been valuing Graphex at 1.50-2,40 A$/share....compared to todays depressed 22ct!! I think the next few weeks do provide enough time to revisit the stock, do some research again, and accumulate a position ( or to average down ! ).No doubt in my mind, that the company will - at some stage - need more equity to stem the 60-70 mill$

Prairie - the saga continues...todays talk in Polands internet is, that the CEO of JSW might stay...but the hammering of PDZ´s share price in Poland continues, Stock closed at the equivalent of 44ct Australian - I am almost temped to buy a few again! It just makes too much sense for JSW to take out Prairie or buy the assets...but IF the CEO of JSW leaves, any potential deal would be pushed out by a few month. I have never seen a company without CEO making a meaningful aquisition!

Have a nice evening

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Ramelius/Explaurum - Sheffield - Peel - Prairie - Paringa

Good afternoon

no major moves in metals and equities today, while Trump is mulling further tariffs on Chinese imports...

Ramelius/Explaurum - RMS making a hostile bid for Explaurum today, bidding 1 share in RMS for 4 shares in EXU, equivalent to 0,1125 A$, based in RMS closing price today, or 54 Mill A$ ( market cap just about the same as EV ). This is interesting, as a) - it´s hostile, and b), it involves a junior gold miner bidding for an even more junior developer. EXU have a reserve of 485.000 oz at 2,09g in WA, and a resource of 675.000 oz at 1,79g gold/t. The company is working on financing etc, and hope to be in production in the first half of 2020. Planned is a 100.000oz mine, with a 1.5 millt plant, for 120 mill A$ capital cost. Planned AISC of 1000 A$/t ( this seems to be the number for new, Australian gold projects! ). EXU have already rejected the bid as it would undervalue it´s assets.

I find this bid interesting as it provides a benchmark for our little Breaker Resources. Breaker are say 12 month behind Explaurum in their development, but already have significantly larger resources of 1.08 mill oz, including a high grade core of 808.000oz at 2g - very similar grades to EXU. The company has also demonstrated through various drill holes, that the underground potential is very significant ( exploration target of more than 1 mill oz ) at riding grades, and the resource is open in all directions. In my opinion, BRB´s Lake Roe project offers much larger upside. The market cap of Breaker today is 10% lower than EXU´s. I think the strong share price of Breaker today is due to a very positive research report by Bell Potter ( which was already ouit late last week ), and perhaps even more so, this takeover bid for EXU. In my opinion, the chances to add a few nunded thousand oz over the next 4-6 month, are significant, and compared to EXU, I think BRB are way too cheap.

The other one, which is in a similar league, is Gascoyne. 650.00 oz in reserves, 1.3 mill oz in resources - again, good exploration upside - and 1000 A$/oz AISC...plus a second deposit with 1mill oz in resources, which got to be worth something...also in WA...and in production - I assume, in full production from next month on. EV of approx 190 mill A$ - that is exactly the same EV as Expluarum, once in full production...but with 40% more reserves. As always, when things are not going well, there are funny rmours going around, like the one, that the largest pit would still be full of water ( but they announced, that ore is being delivered from all 3 pits now ). I think if that stock does not go up any time soon, they might be bid for as well ( and Ramelius said, that they are continuing to look for opportunities ). This is, unless GCY have a major problem at their hands - the only one I can potentially see being grades not reconciling!

Peel Mining - that´s one I have on my watch-list. The company has just done another placement + announced a rights issue, ex-Date 13th of Sept - which means, that the stock will not do much for the next 4 weeks. But St Barbara have increased their holding to 18% of the company. Peel have released a myriad of excellent drilling results from their multi-metal deposit in Cobar, N.S.W., over the last year, and had a good run, until they cam,e under pressure in this terrible market ( stock has had a high of 80ct in February, now at 41ct, rights issue at 36ct ). They have now come back to a reasonable level, Following the next round of drilling, the company is planning to calculate a maiden resource.The current rights-issue might weaken the stock, and could be a good buying opportunity...but if you want it a little saver, wait for the maiden resource!

Sirius Minerals - interesting for followers of potash...announced major cost increases for their planned mine in Yorkshire - mainly for the massive tunnel, planned to deliver the stuff over ( for memory ) 15km! to the port ...Not really a surprise...but nevertheless, the market cap of this thing is still 1.2 bill Sterling....not one for widows. The stock seems to be mainly supported by generalists, which makes me very very cautious! If you ask me, this won´t be the last hurdle on the way for this adventerous development...

Sheffield Resouces - managed to make another step forward to get to their full, native title...and following that, the mining lease. The stock has been extremely well supported in almost any market over the last few month...I think the final leg might well be some corporate action, hence I am not selling a share yet. Mineral sand markets look extremely strong , still - slowly but surely increasing demand is meeting mine production, which is slated to fall over the next few years, and massive problems at the world´s largest mine in South Africa. The stock closed at a recent high - just shy of an alltime high - and I think there is still a lot of room left!

Paringa - announced the first drawdown of debt from Macquarie, having finalised all conditions precedent under the loan agreement.The second tranche will not be needed before the 1st Quarter 2019, and is meant to be for working capital during the ramp-up phase of ther coal mine in the US. The company is also updating on the coal market in the US, which has profited substantially from high world market prices for thermal coal, making it profitabel to export. Prices in the Illinois Basin have been reported around 44,50 US$, which is at least as high as anticipated by analysts, and due to the weak A$, report to higher numbers even in the Australian P&L statement. Strong growth in Natural Gas demand in the States, and a pipeline of large LNG-projects for export are the drivers of a positive outlook as well. Natur Gas is the main alternative to coal fired power in the US. Construction of the plant and the mine is now going according to plan, following some delays in August, and first coal is still anticipated for December. I think this is a tight schedule - anyway - another month delay will not be a major problem, I think, as the Macquarie credit line can now be used. The company has had its fair share of problems this year and therefore, I think the market will wait for first coal to be produced, to re-rate Paringa again to a more reasonable level.

Prairie Mining - weak in Poland today! The CEO of JSW is rumoured to be sacked this week by the government, which owns a controlling stake in JSW. The story is, that JSW is being pushed to invest in another, state-owned company, which is in severe trouble. JSW´s unions are supoorting their CEO, and talk of extorting JSW. This is clearly not a good situation for the company, and sounds like more trouble ahead. Certainly not nice, if you are in the middle of making a decision to lodege a full bid ( potentially ) for Prairie Mining! This action could be testing our patience!

Have a nice evening

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General - Genex Power - Prairie Mining

Good afternoon

before I start, I would like to remind you, that I am writing here a very subjective, superficial blog...this is NO research, you should NOT rely on it, and given that I do like most stocks I am commenting about, I am very often a shareholder!

Very strong labor markets in the US today...also wages growing...strong economy makes sure, that the Fed will continue to tighten. As you would expect, the US$ is also stronger today, Metals are having a volatile day - pretty weak in the morning, recovering strongly until jobs-numbers came out, and finally going into positive territory once the numbers were out!

Wood Mackenzies believe, that copper will rise in the medium term; that aluminium will be very strong, if Rusal cannot escape the sanctions; that lithium and cobalt will be oversupplied; and that nickel will more than double in price to 28.000US$/t over the next 2-3 years! Well I can only say, that Panoramic will start producing the stuff again by around year-end 2018!

Emerging market currencies got some relief today, despite the top election candidate in Brazil getting stabbed and nearly killed!

Genex Power - still one of my absolute favourites and largest holdings - even though the price performance continues to be disappointing. The politicalsituation in Australia is very uncertain with regards to renewable energy...Turnbull certainly was a stronger supporter than is successor! Lots of talk on regulating energy prices...BUT Labour is leading the polls for next years election by 10% or so...they are VERY strong supporters of green policies. This uncertainty has been negative for GNX, as none of the large electricity players wants to commit to long term price guarantees for as long as the political framework has not been set. BUT the State of Queensland,w hich is run by the Labour Party, could come to the rescue here ( remember: very difficult for a small company like GNX to finance a large 700 mill$ project without a guaranteed price floor for the power they plan to produce ), as it did for the Stage 1 Solar Project at Kidston. Any progress here should be a major price trigger for GNX. An offtake agreement and subsequent financing for Stage 2 and -3 ( 250 MW hydro plant, and 270 MW additional solar plant ) could/should put a rocket under the stock. Both is expected this calendar year, despite the political uncertainty.

Additionally, GNX today has entered into an agreement to buy a shovel-ready solar project in NSW called Jemalong. My guess is, that GNX will have to pay a few mill$ for it, once all conditions have been met. There will NOT be a call on shareholders...GNX has 15 mill$ in cash, and has also the capacity to refinance the 100 mill$ line of credit for solar stage 1, as this is now fully up and running and therefore derisked. This should free up another 6-7-8 mill$ (?)., probably at lower interest rates as well. Of the estimated purchase price + capex of say 95 mill A$, 60 or 65 Mill can be borrowed...And the company is planning to sell down up to half of the project at project level, making a placement of fresh stock unnecessary. For GNX, the project should give them some diversity, larger scale, and increased free cash flow. Company is at pains though to declare, that hydro and solar projects at Kidston have top priority and will continue to have. I see this little aqusition as a small positive - but a minor side-deal compared to the much larger existing projects, which have much better upside. Having said this, I think the fully derisked Solar Stage 1 project is very valuable indeed, especially to an incoming party: 14-15 mill A$ in cash generation, less 1.5 mill$ operating costs make this a very nice and tidy project - the new project could be valued at similar levels? Too early to tell, because we do not have a price guarantee as yet ( and the company might not want one, given the very strong outlook for electricity prices in New South Wales)...certainly worth something to GNX. Have a look at their webpage - the presentation their ( see link ) is very strong. Great story, still!!

http://www.genexpower.com.au/corporate-presentation.html

Prairie Mining - hottening up? Well the Polish certainly believe so, driving the share price on good turnover. JSW takeover noise is getting mich louder..According to a Reuters report, JSW is planning a full bid..."one person said, that the Prime Minister as well as the energy ministry had already provisionally approved the plan". The ruling party wants to create jobs ahead of the October-election, and wants strategic assets returned to state ownership. All great noise to my ears...Having said this, any takeover for PDZ would be below 1$, I guess - and that´s only a song vs the NPV of the two projects the company has got in Poland. But given the highly nationalist tendencies in Poland, I would be very happy to take "the sparrow in the hand vs the dove on the roof", as we say in good old Germany!

Have a nice weekend!

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Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

General - Breaker Resources -Lynas Corp - Metro Mining

Good afternoon

Factory Orders in germany are falling again, while manufacturing numbers in the US yesterday as well as labor market numbers today have been strong!

Metals managed to rebound somewhat today, especially copper. I guess sentiment in the physicals was positively influenced by the Chinese takeover bid for copper/zinc miner Nevsun Resources, which seems to be a very strong bid at prices equivalent to a seven-year high, and following on from two earlier bids by Lundin Mining.

But overall, US-politics and emerging market wobbles continue to depress risk appetite!

Breaker Resources - announced some nice drilling results the other day ( incl 45m with 2,14g / 4with 13g and 12m with 2,44g / 6m with 4,3g and 5m with 3,7g ), but more importantly, an excellent resource upgrade today: 1.084 mill oz at average grade of 1,4g gold/t represents an improvement of 74% vs the maiden ( disappointing ) resource from April 2018, at a cut-off grade of 0,5g. Using a cut-off grade of 1g, the resource is still pretty strong at 808.000oz at average grade of 2g. 58% of the resource is in the indicated category. The company sees an exploration target of additional 1.2-1.4 mill oz from underground, and the resource is also open along strike. This is the kind of resource the market would have hoped for back in April - when Breaker was trading at 55ct! This is double todays price...and is showing you, in what dire mood the market is in. The stock had a strong move today, up by 20% to 28ct - still, that should be cheap. The only, and not insignificant negative in this market: My October or so, the company needs fresh funds to continue with the very agressive drilling program ( they are spending a massive 3 mill$/Quarter on exploration ). I will be meeting with management next week.

Lynas - the company reported a very strong result - 53 mill A$ net profit , EBITDA of 127 mill A$. Nevertheless, that was below some high expectations. One thing is for sure, though: management has overseen a very significant turnaround over the last few years, have built a safe and consistent operation, which is the world market leader - definitely outside of China - of sustainnable rare earth production. As such, the company should deserve a strong rating - also in light of the dramatically improved balance sheet. However, the press in Malaysia has reported about a new , parliamentary enquiry into Lynas´s operation. Formally, such an enquiry does not exist in the moment, and Lynas would be very happy to comply with any such review, and is very confident of doing evrything right. But you might remember, how difficult the approval process has been a few years ago, and once in a while, the company needs renewed approvals. This is certainly a major risk here...IF the Malysian authorities would make life hard for Lynas, or even put the operation into doubt, Rare Earth prices would go through the roof. I am not saying, that this is going to happen - it would be major bad news for the nascent, electric vehicle sector, and would be bad news for Malaysia in my opinion as well.

Metro Mining - the company is doing everything right - yet the market in resources stocks is so bad, that these stocks hardly react! MMI have started a completely new bauxite mine in the very North of Australia a few month ago, as you might remember. They have had a few minor issues very early in the operation, mainly driven by an extended wet season. But ever since they raised the additional ( and probably unnecessary equity ) at 22ct , to raise 17 mill$, everything has been going very well: beside the usual start-up risks of a new mine, the main risks here have been for MMI to be able to sell all bauxite mined. Both issues have been adressed: shipping and mining is going well enough for the company to re-affirm this years target of 2 millt of bauxite. 5 different off-takers - all of them Chinese - have now comitetd to 100% of this years production, and teh feedback has been so strong, that the risk of being able to sell all ( increased ) 2019-production appears minimal. Again on the positive side, Alumina prices are very strong - and stronger than expected - resulting in the majority of MMI´s bauxite attracting higher than expected prices.

So , all is going very well here...except for the share price. I believe, that the company is currently shipping at record rates, and at excellent prices, which should result in significant cash flow of something like 4 mill$ per month. Big funds like BlackRock ( holder of 10% ) are supporting this company, and so should you! Cheap! in 3 years time, this company will produce 6 millt vs 3 millt of bauxite next year...expansion financed entirely out of cash/cash flow. At the increased rate, the stock is probably trading at only 3x free cash flow and should be worth something like 7x free cash flow, in my opinion.

have a nice evening!

General - Sheffield - Prairie - Northern Star - Gascoyne - Strike - Evolution - Perseus

Good morning

back in town...! I have to say, that I did not miss much in August...markets have been difficult, as politics overshadow a strong economy. Metals have not had a good time...Trump´s tariff-policy has not done any good to them, and risk-appetite in the mining sector is very limited. Even gold disappointed big time in an enviroment, which should have been good for it...but it looks like the relatively strong US$ and rising interest rates are having a stronger effect than erratic politics.

In Australia, the demise of Mr.Turnbull has had a negative impact on the A$, which has been good for the miners. Except for this , I think Australian investors have been frustrated for so long with their politicians, that the impact of the recent chaos has been pretty limited. One area of politics is continuing to make headlines, though - that is energy/power. Lots of uncertainty here, how the new Prime Minister and his team are going to manage this issue - and it will affect miners as well as generators and consumers.

Economic Confidence in Europe is still positive, but continous to slide. In the US, Personal Income gains only 0,3% vs expected 0,4%, while inflation at 2.3% is at a 6-year high. Inerest rates should continue to go gradually higher, supporting the US$.

Sheffield Resources - have received a favourable Native Title ruling. There is a 28-day appeal period now, but given thet SFX had previously reached also an in-principle agreement in private negotiations, the chances for an appeal appear pretty low. The above has been the main issue with developing the Thunderbird Mine. Prices for mineral sands are doing extremely well, and look strong into the future as well, as some production will peter out due to diminishing reserves. Sheffield have what appears an outstanding, long-life and good quality project in a top jurisdiction, being Western Australia. Financing is very advanced....and I believe, that the company will either be taken out, or sell down part of the project to a large industry participant - both would make another equity raising unnecessary. The stock has de-risked further , and teh share price has risen - but I think the story is far from over, given 2$-valuations by some analysts.

Prairie Mining - Polish coking coal miner JSW updated the market the other day on various things, as well as on ongoing negotiations with Prairie Mining re their two coal developments in Poland. They commented, that both projects do satisfy JSW´s coal quality requirements, and that further steps would be taken by mid-September. This excited the market, especially in Poland...JSW had previously mentioned some doubt as to the quality of the Jan Karski coal. On Monday, the stock jumped to the equivalent of more than 70ct in Polish trading, on 1.4 mill shares turnover, the highest turnover since early April. As you will remember, the NPV of each of the projects exceeds the market value of PDZ by multiples - but both mines are subject to mining license issues.

Northern Star - is the first of the "fabulous 4" making a move on M&A outside of Australia. They bought the Pogo Gold Mine in Alaska from Sumitomo Metal Mining for 260 Mill US$. Pogo is producing around 300.000 oz at just under 900 US$ AISC, with reserves of only 760.000 oz, but another 3.3 mill oz in resources. Given NST´s history of managing old mines extremely well, this could be a great aquisition...but I think too early to tell. Alaska is not Australia, and this is the first move of NST outside of Australia. The stock was suspended today as they were doing a placement to raise 175 Mill A$ to partially finance the aquisition.

Gascoyne - raised 19 Mill A$ plus potentially 5 mill$ in SPP at 30ct - VERY disappointing! The company cites as main reason, that the plant was starting comissioning 6 weeks earlier than planned, and that mining could not be adjusted quickly enough. Hence, more low-grade ore had to be processed. I assume, that production of 4.800oz in July, from ore grading 0,83g/t vs a medium term head grade of 1.3g, did not produce any free cash as yet...But I also believe, that raising 24 mill$ is the typical over-the-top raising, making it safer than safe....A HK-based investor took 10 mill$ of the placement. 177 mill A$ enterprise value as at today for the company will hopefully prove a real bargain...but the market is understandably cautious now, as this is the second surprise-placement in the stock. One has to question, whether management has performed well? I will work on that question...

Strike Energy - are making good progress with Jaws , their most important well ever. The pumps are working extremely well - pumping capacity is not a constraining factor, as had been the case with earlier wells.The productivity continues to build, and I think the day of gas flowing should be with us over the next few weeks. The company is managing the wells very cautiously, which is exactly the way they should be doing it. Just after I went on holidays, STX did a quick-and-dirty placement to raise 3 mill$, which answered all questions the ASX had with regards to working capital, which appeared a little short. This little placement will finance them until year end only - but that is more than enough to finish JAWS as a producer - well, I bloody hope so, as anything else would be very negative! If things go as planned, the STX share price should be substantially higher by year end, and major East Coast producers will all have an eye on this little company, which has a major gas resource. As has been announced, STX will aslo have to put some money into their Western Australian asset in the first Quarter, drilling a first well. STX management must be very sure about a transaction with an incoming partner for West Erregulla - otherwise, they would have raised more money. I assume, that we will get more news here soon as well.

Evolution - along with other gold stocks in Australia, my favourite gold miner came under pressure as well. While the yearly result has been a stand-out, guidance for the current financial year has been more cautios. The extraordinary low cash costs of 89 A$/oz AISC in the last financial year cannot be repeated, and the company is expecting the worst Quarter in terms of AISC to be the current Quarter, making the market a little nervous. Overall, free cash flow in the current year is expected to be the same as last year - about 450 mill A$ - as capex will be somewhat lower. The stock had been bought up to heavily by generalist funds, which kind of had to invest into the strong outperformer. And I guess Sawiri killed off any pent-up demand with his last placement in late July. But with the Aussi gold price still trading at around 1650A$/oz, 2.66 A$ and 10x free cash generation is definitely worth looking at again. Stocks tened to overshoot - so as EVN overshot to the top earlier this year, tehy might well do the same on the downside...I am staying tuned and am planning to re-enter EVN at the 2.50 A$-level.

Perseus - have provided a new LOM-plan for Edikan, which is calling for production of 1.1 mill oz over 6years at 950 US$AISC, which looks a little ambitious.(?) Exploration success at Yaoure has been good, while I think the company has not shown as yet, that the 5-year life at Sissingue can be increased. There have been some positive intersections, but in my ( amateurish ) opinion, they are not good enough as yet to give additional reserves at reasonable grades. Yaoure will announce a new reserve update in early October, which could be positive. Overall, I think slightly disappointing. Edikan is just a difficult asset, highly sensitive to the gold price - and that went into the wrong direction recently. With gold at 1300/1350 US$, I felt much more positive on PRU than with gold at 1200! I doubt, whether Yaoure can be developed without raising any capital, or selling down at the asset level, or doing a streaming deal....all would be potentially negative. I can only guess - but looking at the overall state of the gold market ( physical as well as stocks ), financiers are probably pretty luke warm these days. Unless you see upside in the gold price ( which got to be doubtful, given the direction of interest rates in the States ) over the next few month, there is not much incentive to buy PRU in the moment, unfortunately.

Have a nice evening