Market Update

General - Evolution - Northern Star - West African

Good afternoon

sorry, when I told you to buy, I meant sell...amazing, that Trump is getting away with this bullshit! 

If America has got at least some kind of honor and ethics left in it´s big belly, it will not re-elect this guy. But it seems to be fact, that he is actually gaining in popularity!

Housing numbers in the States - which tend to be volatile - have been very weak indeed.

Citi sees "Copper on Steroids" for the enxt 10 years, amid a shortage of new proejcts.

J.P.Morgan are getting a bit more positive on EV´s...they have revised their assumptions upwards, and expect 1 Millt of copper needed by EV´s in 2025.

West African - announced some very positive drilling results yesterday, extending the high grade underground zone at M1 by another 70m, and possibly finding a new zone. An updated resource for M1 , and results from the scoping study into underground mining at M5, are expected by the end of September.

Evolution - remember, that Phoenix sold part of it´s Castle Hill reserve/resource to Norton Goldfields, before Evolution took them over? Norton never mined that stuff. EVN now bought out the JV-partner, enabling them to access 265.000 oz in reserves ( pit shell based on 1350 A$ gold price ), and about 3x that amount in resources, for roughly 15 mill A$. A good deal for them - Mungari is only 25 km away, and has limited mine life. The deal gives them another 2.5 years or so, plus a lot of room for exploration success. Not big in the overall scheme of things, but a nice , little add-on.

Northern Star - great Quarterly! 184.000 oz for the Quarter - new record - at 982 A$ oz AISC. Both numbers ahead of all expectations, and leading to nice, low double-digit upgrades for coming years. Free cashflow of just above 90 mill$ in the Quarter increased net cash position to 443 Mill A$! Following their excellent success on the exploration front, NST increased the exploration budget to 60 Mill A$ this year. That´s a lot of money for near-mine exploration, and given their track record, it will be money well spent. Drilling companies in WA will like this big number! As you know, I have been cautious for years on NST, which was clearly wrong ( or should I say: It was a misunderstanding? ). The reason for that ahs been the limited mine life vs the full valuation - but they are getting there through exploration, and I have to admit, that I am on the verge of becoming a buyer! 

Have a nice evening

WS

 

 

General - Panoramic - Highfield

Good afternoon

Metals continue to slump today....

Retail Sales in the States were pretty strong, and were revised up for May as well.

Growth in China 6,7% last Quarter....helped by strong Retail Sales. But few analysts have any doubts, that numbers will come down...

Hard to believe: Deutsche Bank with 2nd Quarter earnings beat! That must have been the first one in 37 Quarters or so!

The French made it! Amazing - the Croations had a mega- party in Munich last night! They were certainly good and also slightly unlucky loosers!

Citi´s highly rated commodities team expects copper to hit 6.800 US$ again by year end, and likes nickel, which tehy think will hit 16.000 US$ within the next 2 years.

Highfield - have now answered all open questions - just in time for the Spanish summer holiday! I guess nothing will happen until early September now...

Panoramic - very happy today! Savannah coming back on stream early next year, following a debt financing with macquarie for 40 Mill A$, which requires about 25% hedging until mid 2021 , done at about 14.100$/t nickel ( nothing wrong with putting on a limited hedge 100% above your costs! ) . Nice surprise not to have any fresh equity needed! The market will like that tomorrow! Nickel stocks have been very sought after in Australia recently - I am hoping for a nice move now! 

Have a nice week!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

 

 

General - Perseus - Resolute - Panoramic

Good afternoon

Now the POM´s are getting their fat from Trump: May has done a terrible job, and Boris would be a good Premier! This guy is getting worse by the day! Lt´s hope that the Queen will give him a real bullocking this afternoon, over a cup of tea! ( I actually would not be surprised, if she did! Perhaps Phillip should attend as well! ). Sorry I can´t help my self - but this guy is coming up with new atrocities just about every day

With a president like this - how can gold trade at 1242??

China exports slightly weaker - even though they were growing to the US - while imports were weak , indicating, that the Chinese economy might be slowing down? Bond markets in Europe are very strong indeed today, equities are up, and base emtals are down...

Sales of EV´s spiralled by 71% in the first half - but June already showing weaker growth, as subisidies for cars with small range in China finished on 12th of June. Subsidies on larger cars with longer range  are actually rising ( needing also larger batteries ) . Second half growth might be closer to 30% ; Macquarie believes.

 Panoramic - suspended pending an announcement on debt financing for Savannah!! Stock coming back on Monday and Tuesday - I guess the announcement will also include statement re starting up Savannah again! 

Resolute - yet with another announcement , this time on credit line and Bibiani. They got a 100 Mill US$corporate credit line form Investec ....good news...and the updated feasibility study  for Bibiani in Ghana looks good. For the first time, this project looks like a certain goer...100.000oz for 10 years at 700-800 US$ AISC for life of the mine, pre-production capital has risen to 115 mill A$ from 95 mill A$. The go-ahead will only be given, once the sub-level cave operation at Syama is up and running - makes sense for me, to not have too much risk at the same time. Good announcement, once again!

Perseus - full Quarterly out.Record production of 83.800 oz at 913 US$ AISC - 147.000 oz for the half year. 33 Mill US$ of  free cash generated. Guidance for the current half of 130-150.000 oz at 950-1150 US$ AISC. Excellent Quarter at Edikan, and also at Sissingue ( 520 US$ AISC and a very nice cash generator! ), which positively reconciliation vs feasibility study of -1% in grade, but +9% in contained gold! Remains to be seen,  whether this positive news can be extrapolated to the sulphide ore...next two Quarters will tell!

The company strongly hinted at being able to bring Yaoure into production without any further equity. He mentioned the 57 mill A$ in oustanding options...I still guess, that without this money, it will be very tight! But financing should be fixed this calendar year, which sounds promising! 

I have no idea, why the stock is down - this was an excellent Quarter! The stock had not reacted so far to the lower gold price - perhaps the good Quarterly became a liquidity event!

Have a nice weekend!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

 

 

 

General - Lucapa - Sheffield - Oceana

Good afternoon

M.Trumps verbal cold war against Germany continous...but he claims, that everybody likes him! I think he would include Melania in this comment! In any case, I believe that Putin is much easier to deal with than this fast-changing character!

Equities are stronger, as are metals, based on some possible,new talks on trade between China nd the US. Gold continues to be under pressure, while the US$ is strenghtening somewhat.

CPi as well as CPI ex Food and Energy in teh States in line withe xpectations, at 2,9)% and 2.3% resp.

Sheffield - Quarterly out today...very busy time, with some approvals coming through. The final, enviromental approval expected to be received shortly - certainly this Quarter - as well as a solution to the Native Title issue - this one rather "early in the Quarter ". 75% of all production firmly contracted now - zircon prices are rising strongly, and apparently at 1700 $ now, which is a fantastic price. I just consulted the recent RBC-report on the stock - tehy are using 1282$, going slowly to 1400. I reckon this is very conservative, in light of the shrinking zircon production from existing mines. Also, Richards bay Minerals ( RIO ), which is by far the largest zircon mine in the world, contineus to have security issues - a security guard has been killed , and the mine has been halted for a few days already. Last time something like this happened, RIO had to declare force majeur....RBC arrived at a valuation of 1.50 A$/share - that was based on remaining capital being raised at a 15% discount. If Sheffield can raise that equity from a JV-partner ( and I believe, that tehy have been talking for some time ) at say 1$, and commodity prices would be 10% higher than their base forcast ( well, that also looks entirely possible, if not probable! ), that valuation goes to 2$/share. All I know is, that I would be very happy with a bid at 1,50 A$ for the company! Once all approvals are in place, I still believe, that this is a distinct possibility. Remember, that most of teh sizeable, independent producers are gone now - Sierra Rutile about 2 years ago, and MDL takeover has been more or less completed now as well. 

Lucapa Diamonds - I have not written about them for a while, and also have not been a shareholder for some time. There was too much uncertainty to be there. But this is slowly changing! They raised necessary funds for the development of their second diamond mine now, to be fully financed - Euroz raised  16 mill A$ for them at 23ct in April.  This will reduce country risk, once in production - happening later this year. Production in Angola continues to recover large diamonds - the latest today with 118 ct. And exxploration at their exciting exploration asset, which delivered great results in the first round of drilling, has started again. The stock has been languishing around the current level for some time - I think tehy might have a credibility problem in the market. It might be worthwhile to join the party and accumulate stock here.

Oceanagold - strong Quarterly production report - rest coming later. Didipio had a great Quarter, which might have been due to a few one-off factors. Haile also doing well. Company is good value here - a few positive announcements recently! More detail will come with the Quarterly Report.

Have a nice evening!

WS

General - Dacian - Resolute

Good afternoon

thanks Mr.Trump! Strangely enough, he is also planning to put tariffs on things like Rare Earth and Cobalt! Merkel has just survived the fight with her disgusting coalition partner, Seehofer - Trump is not any nicer and won´t be fun to spend some time with him at the NATO on the weekend. But who knows - Melania seems to have a new face, perhaps giving him a warm and fuzzy feel!

Trump is now starting to hurt big business and Wall Street - I wonder, whether he would survive such a fight! Important, Republican leaders have raised their concerns already...

Base metals got a real hit today...down close to 3%....Deutsche came out with a big update on metals. They regard trade-war uncertainties as a good entry point,  like aluminium, copper, and are extremely bullish on nickel - seeing a record-high supply deficit this year. They can also see very little to replace Lithium Ion batteries in the foreseeable future.

Dacian - their placement to raise between 40-45 mill A$ at 2,70 A$ surprised everybody today, I think! They are buying a small royalty on their main asset, which according to Macquarie, has a NPV based on current reserves of 13 mill A$ - tehy pay 12 mill$ , and it makes sense. They want to have the balance for exploration....sounds a lot to me, and the timing is surprising, as they are just ramping up to serious production, having produced 35.000 oz last Quarter. I would have thought, that they are becoming cash positive this Quarter. Apparently, the placement went quite well - still, if I would be a shareholder, I would not be happy with the dilution at this point in time.

Resolute - update on Raventhorpe, their Australian mine, which is currently being expanded. Mine life expanded by 3 years to 2032 - but average production down to 15.000 p.a. from 120.000. AISC reduced by nearly 80$ to a planned 1097 A$/oz - good effort amid cost pressures from fuel, power and enviromental compliance. Capex over the lif of mine up to 327 millA$, from 258 Mill A$ - but large part of capex now only happening 2004, and some in 2020 - only 33 mill A$ in fy 2019. That´s quite positive, as they are right into a very large capex programm at Syama I think overall, this announcement is slightly positive.

Resolute will never be a low-cost producer - but at both operations, they have unusually long mine life, which is partially making up for the country risk. The exploration potential at Syama is still excellent. I think overall, RSG are still on the cheap side, certainly compared to the fabulous five! The stock is a strong hold - I am held back a bit from the relatively high risk to bring a block-cave mine into production in Africa - otherwise, RSG would be an outright buy!

hve a nice evening!

ws