Market Update

General - Metro - Beadell

Good afternoon

German Factory Orders as well as Investor Confidence weaker again...political uncertainty is clearly having an impact now...Thank you, Mr.President!

London is closed today, and equities are continuing their recent run!

Breaker Resources - is trying to stem the tide with some good drilling results. Stock was up on very high turnover today, following som extensionla drilling results - the ebst being 12m with 6.78g and 12m with 4.3 g. The stock has lost a lot of steam, and the market had lost confidence somewhat. But a few good drill-holes at a market cap of 39 mill A$ are certainly a different thing than at 80 mill$. It will be a long way back - confidence is a difficult thing to get back - but below 30ct, the stock might be good vallue. No hurry, though...

Beadell - they are really in turnmoil....after having received a credit line from Sprott recently, they closed it again ( I would not want to know, what the exercise has cost them...)...and replaced it with equity. I can only guess, that large shareholders have not been peticular happy with the terms....Anyway - company now raised about 11 Mill US$ in convertible debt, and another 14 mill A$ or so in equity at 8.3ct with attached 3 for 4 warrants, exercisable at 0,0815$ for 4 years!! Well - these terms are pretty harsh as well....and teh fact that the company placed convertibles as well as equities tells me, that it has not been an easy task to find buyers. Still, at these levels, I am starting to get very tempted.........in the end, everything has got it´s price.....But at this stage, I am still out....

Metro Mining - slightly delayed, the company shipped the first 62.000t delivery to China today! The company has had some commissioning issues, because of wet weather and some hyraulical problems of their trucks. Over the last few days, bauxite at a rate of 7.000t were loaded on a ship, while the 10.000tpd target is planned to be achieved by the end of June. Absolutely amazing: There have been three events during the first Quarter, when more than 1m of rain was recorded over a few days!! In Germany, the average rainfall per year is about 70cm!!! Anyway - they will have to start building  astockpile over time, as this thing can and will happen often again in their part of the world! Anyway -all aspects are working, and from here, the mine should be printing cash for them!

Have a nice evening

WS

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by

General - West African

Good afternoon

I am really enjoying watching US-politics these days! Much better fun than under Obama, and much more action! I have not paid him /and I did not know anything /and I did not f..k her anyway / to yes maybe and that´s what rich people do - pay a retainer on a monthly basis for problems like "this" coming up ...and if there is not enough money to pay for settlements ( this must clearly be the reason???? )  I will pay over the enxt few month, trust me....the entertainement value of all of this is excellent. The main surprise to me is, that obviously, Mr.President is employing second rated lawyers! Perhaps they are the only ones happy to do the job??

Anyway...payroll numbers in the States strong, but not as stronga s expected...perhaps not enough unemployed workers around even? Hard to say - in any case, a solid number, with wages growth of 2.6% YoY in check and hence, there should not be any drama in the bond market! Metals are not doing much today, either - looks like everybody wants to have a relaxing weekend!

Strong result from Macquarie Bank - the bank has exactly the same market cap as Deutsche Bank today! Testament to a great performance ove rthe years, and to a never-ending desaster at Deutsche Bank!

West African Resources - have raised 35 Mill A$ at 32ct! 47 Mill A$ cash in the bank, once this placement has settled. The company will only need a few mill to finish teh feasibility study over the coming weeks, to be announced in June I guess, alongside a new resource/reserve statement. I understand, that there was some very strong demand from Australia, while the foreign tranche was also heavily oversubscribed. This placement is certainly a strong indication, that the company can go this alone, and that Sanbrado can easily be financed ! Great news! I still believe, that we will see a takeover this year - but if the company would not want to develope this themselves, tehy would not have done the placement, in my opinion! The real news will be in June - for now, we will have hopefully seen the bottom of teh share price! I participated in this placement. The news is out, so I assume, that the stock will relist in Canada later today.

You have a nice weekend!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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Fax +49-89-4613440-10

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by 

General - Lucapa - Panoramic - Battery Minerals - Kingsgate - Mineral Resources

Good afternoon

the PMI´s from around the world have been good enough to indicate further growth, but at a slowing level, A raft of not-so-strong numbers, as well as continued low inflationin Europe is helping the US$ to the highest level since early january. Gold is shrugging the currency off today - at 1377 US$ and 1750 A$, it´s pretty strong ( and in A$ terms, it´s just 10$ below the recent high). The base metals also slightly better, and nickel is back up through 14.000 US$/t. 

Equities have been stable earlier on, but are now dragged down by the US-market - apparently on some unfavourable results from the financial sector.

Our resources market feels a bit boring and worn out, still - this is despite global equities having anotehr good year so far! It´s hard to believe - but with all the bad news and issues we have had this year, stock markets around the world are up by 2-3% in US$/terms, by 5-6% in Euro-terms. That is much better than you would think, isn´t it?

Goldman´s strategists believe, that resources should be ideally placed for this time of the cycle...growth quite good, interest rates still low, a little bit of inflation on the horizon.

Elon Musk think´s that analysts are boring - well in many cases he might be right -  still, it´s smarter to talk to them! He did say, though, that Tesla have managed to substantially reduce the amount of cobalt needed in their batteries, while increasing the use of nickel. If not for Glencore´s ongoing legal issues in DRC, and a disappoint March-Quarter production report for cobalt, cobalt prices in London most probably would have been much weaker today. In actual fact, they look to be slightly up to 90.500 US$/t in London. 

Mr.Macron finds Mr.Turnbull´s wife "delicious"...good on him...I don´t think too many people would subscribe to that!

Lucapa Diamonds - the company is back on my inevstment board....they have done a relatively large placement recently at 23ct ( no discount at the time ) to a couple of large funds, done by respected broker Euroz. The funds are to be used to drive exploration at their exciting exploration project Brooking in  Australia, only 50km from the old Ellendale Diamond Mine, where they discovered 119 small diamonds in a singe 87kg sample from one drill hole. The company has also had a good Quarterly from their 40%-owned Luo Diamond Mine in Angola, and reported today the find of a large, pink diamond. In Lesotho LOM is developing the Mothae Diamond Mine, which is  now fully financed and which will go into production in the second half 2018 - I guess it will be October. The company has now two very advanced projects, one great exploration target, and Euroz as a backer. The Euroz placement brought a range of institutional investors to the company for the first time. I think LOM are worth a very good look again.

Panoramic - have a new and very experienced board mmeber - good to balance the influence of PAN´s 30%-shareholder. Nicolas Cernotta has 30 years of experience, has been Director of Operations at Fortescue, and before that, COO of MacMahon , a larger mining services company. Euroz have listed PAN amongst their  "Best Buys" for this month, expecting a psoitive mining decision. They see peak EBITDA of 120 mill A$ for PAN, and believe, that the stock will move to 1$+ over time. 

Kingsgate - have put Nueva Esperanza, their Chilean-based silver asset, on the block! KCN ahve currently 3.5 millA$ cash in the bank - not enough for the litigation, and not enough to drive Nueva forward. At todays level of 63 mill A$ market cap, the stock is probably cheap - but do you want to own a mine, which si quite desperately mining in the courts? The hearings with Thailand are planned for late 2019, indicating just how long this could take. Negotiations with the country insurer could be finished earlier - but do you want to bet on this???

Mineral Resources - have put their current flagship asset, Wodgina, on the block - or more exact, 49% of it + offtake agreement. MIN will remain the minings ervices company, providing everything from pit to port, which will also be lucrative over time. 50% of Wodgina could be worth up to 1 bill A$, depending on what prices you want to use for Lithium , Lithium Hydroxide, and which discount rate. Some funds will be needed to develope the automated, Pilbara-based train system, and some for building up the grahpite-projects - but I think tehre would also be a very significant pay-out to shareholders. Chris Ellison, the MD of teh conmapny, has done a legendary job and as he cannot be seen as a seller, he will onyl be able to get cash out of the company via dividends. The stock ahs had a good run - but it´s probably worth 10% more than today, and Chris Ellison is probably also worth a few$ extra. As a holder, I am very happy in any case - always difficult to find undervalued, larger caps, and this is one.

Battery Minerals - have announced a 30 Mill$ debt-and equity placement with RCF, a very prominent and smart investor group - subject to additional 28 Mill A$ raising. RCF is receiving 333 mill Options at 10ct , for 5 years...I don´t like that ( significant ) part of tehd eal! You can always see it again: If you ahve the cash, you are getting a great deal! Anyway, I only mention this to show the significant interest from private equity type of mining funds in graphite - even in Mozambique. 10% interest, 2% establishment fee, 333 Mill options...not bad ! But this transaction, alongside the placement to free shareholders, will be enough to bring the Stage 1 into production. If the company proceeds as planned - Stage 2 next year, and then again a doubling of production - the options and teh % will be forgotten in 2-3 years. But obviously, some patience is needed here!

Have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

 

 

 

 

 

 

General - Strike - Northern Star - Syrah - Independence - Paringa

Good afternoon

Public holiday all over Europe tomorrow...

Europeans are watching Trump´s tariff decision, due tomorrow, on Alu and steel...will Europe be excluded? Nobody believes so...on the 12th of May, the Iran-decisisonís due...politics still very important for markets, the latter one especially important for oil prices....How ill EU react to Trump´s decisions? Like puppies? I guess we will....I hope we will not...short term pain might well be long term gain for Europe. Once the Americans will build proper cars, American people will buy them - tariffs are not the point...

US PMI not great but ok

Interesting to watch: Deutsche Telekom taking over Sprint - aubject to US government approval. There got to be a realistic chance, that Trump will not allow an American Telco to fall to his European enemies!???

Surprisingly, European stocks are slightly stronger - I guess ultra-low interest rates are no tendency by Draghi to change that, are still the big driver. Amazingly, German inflation at 1.4% still not existent...

Sainsbury up by 21% today - 14.4.% of the stock has been shorted! Unlucky....

 

Glencore getting another kick in the bum with regards to their congolese assets - this time from Mr.Gertler, ex-friend of the company. Show me your friends, and I tell you , who you are! Gertler is probably even more ruthless than Glencore, and he is taking them to court for 3 bill$...freezing the main Glencore assets in the country.

Chinese PMI a touch better than expected - business looks pretty steady in China.

Syrah Resources - Quarterly from what will be the world´s largest graphite producer. The project in Mozambique is still plagued by all sorts of commisioning problems, none of which looks very serious to me. The company expects a strong production ramp-up by 25% in the first half, and 75% in the  second half year. Demand for graphite for battery anodes will rise exponentially over the enxt few years, and all of that growth in demandcould theoretically be supplied by Syrah. The company is well financed - but they better achieve their production targets, as 80 Mill US$ in cash will be burnt in less than 9 month at the current pace. The company is targeting to be cash flow positive by the end of September. This stock is certainly not risk-free - but Syrah will be a clear market leader in it´s field and as such, is probably a target for much larger companies, should problems arise. If they deliver as planned, the stock could easily be 50% higher by the end of this year - I am happy to take this risk.

Independence - I never liked the company, and that was confirmed again with an average Quarterly Report. Jaguar and Long are two very average base metal operations, not generating much cash even under the currently strong price-regime for most base metals. Tropicana Gold  is also not shooting too many goals for them, and they are only a minority owner here. Finally, Nova Nickel certainly is an excellent asset, and is producing the highly sought after nickel for batteries. Folllowing a few early problems, productions is now ramping up the desired level of 7000t/Quarter. Grades are improving, costs are falling and should finally settle at something like 2A$ cash costs/lb. The EV of IGO is around 3.1 bill A$ - for that, you are effectively getting 30% of Tropicana ( = about 125.000 oz production p.a. ), worth 600-700 mill A$b at best, and Nova nickel - 28-29.000t of nickel production worth perhaps 1.5 bill A$. That leaves me at say 2.2 bill A$. The stock is only trading at the current elevel due to a shortage of halfway sizeable ( = investable ) diversified miners in Australia.

Paringa - the company continues with it´s slightly disappointing development...originally, production was planned for summer 2018 - then it became 3.Quarter...then second half....now it´s 4th Quarter 2018...all because of a patch of bad weather during winter? Also, financing was always going to be relatively tight....and now production takes a bit longer than planned, which will not be without any additional costs. The listing in the States has never happened...the debt-financing is not signed as yet....and for several Quarters, we have heard about promising talk with potential offtakers. That´s not really what I call a good run! The stock has been very low risk - potentially 100% return 6 month ago - now it´s say 80% return and increased risk. That´s still cheap - but management has to get it´s act toghether.

Mineral Deposits - the company  is producing mineral sands in Senegal - in JV with Eramet, which is  50% JV-partner. Eramet has made a full, hostile bid for MDL...very unusual for a JV-partner to go hostile! Beside of being positive for the Australian resources scene, it´s interesting to see another takeover in the mineral sands space. Not much left in the sector! One of the left-overs is our little Sheffield - once the inigenous approval is there, stock will come under threat...

Northern Star - their Quarterly was not good, which is unusal. 123.000oz og gold - Jundee running at AISC of 963 A$, and Kalgoorlie at 1.239 A$/oz - that is not very impressive. To be more precise: That is not impressive vs market expectations and vs their market cap....in absolute terms, it´s very impressive, considered the tired assets they took over a few years ago! The company is guiding for 150.000 oz in the current Quarter, which would be a positive outcome. NST have done a great job with their old assets, and have been an extremely successfull explorer - combined that should give them a premium-rating. But that´s what they have currently... I see no upside unless from a much better gold price - and I rather see some more downside on any disappointment from production. No reason to buy the stock, and not too much reason to hold it...

Strike Energy - last but not least, some excellent news from them. The second drill hole has been completed - and the horizontal well, and the vertical well drilled about 700m away, have met each other as planned, at a total depth of 2.880m!! Absolutely amazing, what these drilling companies can do these days. Now the well will be prepared for fracking, and will be completed with installation of pumps etc etc. I don´t know, what exactly is happening to the budget - all the company has said is, that they have sufficient funds to complete everythinga s planned. I guess, that costs will blow out in the end by 1-2 mill $ - but that is completely unimportant compared to the potential success. As we all know, the orginal plan, to frack from inside the coal seem, had to be abandoned - fracking is now happening from just under the coal seem. Obviously, this is only the second best way to do it! Keep your fingers corssed- so far, so good - I think by the end of June we will know, whether this is a winner...or whether numerous years of waiting have been wasted!

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons

 

 

 

 

 

General - Newcrest - West African - Sheffield - Beadell

Good afternoon

Initial Jobless Claims as well as continuing claims very low, but Durable Goods Orders ex Transport & Defence pretty flat...

Draghi still sees the European economy as very robust, albeit slightly less so than expected one-two month ago.

Apparently, Deripaska does not want to give up control for Rusal without a fight - that is helping industrial metals today. They were pretty weak early in the day,a nd are now trading roughly unchanged from yesterday. The strong US$ is not helping them, and certainly not gold, which is trading at 1318 US$/oz.

Equities are strong today - Facebook result is relieve for many!

A myriad of Quarterlies out today...will cover over the next few days....

West African- received Enviromental + Social Approval for their planned mine in Burkinah. I had not expected this to be a problem - yet we have seen so many hick-ups in various approval processes recently, that I do regard this as an important announcement. Company sitting on 15 mill cash - more than enough to finish the feasibility - to be announced in early June. Until then: Waiting game - we might see one ore the other drilling result. All comments are positive - the lowest price target in the market I think is 51ct ( and I think it´s worth 70ct ) - yet nobody is interested..very disappointing! I guess the absolute boredom in North Americangold inices is not helping general sentimenmt - reportedly, North American speculators have move away from mining stocks to bitcoin and marihuana....and got hurt on both! I have toa dmit, that my risk-appetite is pretty small these days as well!

Beadell - I do not believe it....stock is suspended for a placement!!!! I thought their financing needs had been done and finished with the recent debt-financing. Let´s wait for the announcement - something gone wrong here? I am very glad to ahve sold this one very long time ago...sometimes the impression of management does not ly - even though it´s such a subjective analysis. We have got this one 100% right - unfortunately, there are others out there as well, where we did not so well!!

Sheffield Resources - the most important poins from their Quarterly: Nearly 30 mill A$ in cash as at today....A lot of preliminary work done like preparing roads, construction camp etc - but the Aboriginal Approval is not there as yet. This is obviously the most important short term trigger. Taurus has been lined up for 200 mill$ financing. SFX are also talking to the Northern Australian Infartsructur Fund - ,might get some subordinated debt from them? The next hearing at the Native Title Tribunal taking place on the 18th of May - a decision might take 6 weeks. Hence the company is still negotiating themsleves - perhaps some solutions can be reached - but any documentation also would take at aleast a month. The market for SFX´s mineral sands product is still improving - Iluka, the main pure producer of mineral sands in the world, is trading at the highest level in 5 years. Would be great to get an announcement on the Native Title issue - the stock would certainly respond strongly to that! The company is still negotiating with several parties about jointly developing the project....

Newcrest - a pretty bad Quarterly....all mines except for Lihir underperformed expectations. The stock has underperformed all other, Australian quality-producers over years, and massively so....I see no reason yet to revisite - unless somebody needs quick and liquid gold exposure. They still have the ebst turneover ( 60 Mill$/day ) by a long shot - I think this is the only reason, why NCM are still trading above 20$. For "normal" investors, absolutely no reason to be there. 50-60% of NPV is based on Cadia - and we all know the multiple issues this mine complex has experienced over the last 12-18 month!

have a nice eeving

WS