Market Update

General - Tanzania - Paladin - Kingsgate

Good afternoon

base metals are up again today! Only copper is trading a touch lower , following a relatively large increase in LME stocks . On the contrary, zinc stocks are at the lowest level since early 2011. Given Copper, Zinc as well as Lead have been strong recently, it´s probably time to look at my little Foran Mining again! Iron ore strong as well and catching up to some degree with very strong prices for steel more recently.

The Chinese PMI was expansionary again following some weaker numbers recently, and Europe´s PMI is still rising - from German to France, and even Italy and Greece. Strongest numbers since 2011, and especially new orders have been strong. Equities are strong again in Europe, while the US$ - surprisingly - is a little stronger today. In the US, the PMI was also at it´s highest since August 2014 . Like in Europe, new orders looking especially strong.

Gold is finding it tough again today, and looks vulnerable of the charts. Given the clear tendencies around the world for stronger interest rates, a test of 1200 US$ might be looming on us!

Tanzania - what a nightmare! I guess you have all seen the commentary surrounding the ridiculous situation of Acacia and the governments demands on them. Late on Friday, the government proposed a new mining law, under which 16,6% of all projects would go to the government for free, and roaylties would be increased from 4% to 6%. What a crazy plan...The parliament will decide on it this week. Numerous players are active in the country, from Peak Resources in Rare Earth, to numerous graphite stocks incl Graphex Mining, and several gold miners. Africa is and remains a somewhat crazy continent for investors...More news will transpire during this week, and I will have a conference call with Peak Resources on Wednesday morning.

Paladin - is finally breaking under a large debt position, and terrible prices for uranium - they were hiding today from having to pay back 277 Mill US$ in debt + interest by placing themselves under administration. I dare to say, that there will be very little , and probably nothing left for shareholders. The company was one of the truly amazing pre-crash wonders, moving from 1ct to 10ct and then to 10$!!! Unfortunately, all without my involvement!

Kingsgate - following a meeting in Bankgkok on the 27th, the deadline for talks has been extended by one month to the 27th of July. I guess extending a deadline means, that there is some hope for a solution??

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

General - Heron - Finders

Good afternoon

German labor market was flat last month, unemployment rate stays at 5,7%. 

Jobs and Personal Income in the States doing ok, while consumers expectations are much worse than their feeling about current conditions. No surprise - except for talking a lot of s..t and troubling the world, Trump has delivered aboslutely nothing so far - on balance, he has delivered much worse than zero!!

The last 1-or 2 percentage difference in economic growth are just a matter of mass-psychology, in my view. No wonder perhaps, that Europe with it´s new found identity is feeling great and growing slowly out of it´s mess, and the US retreating in relative terms!

Bonds show no sign of recovery - equities are holding today. A large internet IPO for a change in Germany today - Rocket lists Delivery Hero very succesfully today, following teh sale of a stake in a South East Asian e-commrce page at 20x the investment to Alibaba on Tuesday. It does not prevent - surprisingly - the share price of Germany´s internet flagship to fall by more than 10% this week.

Base metals are holding their nice, recent gains again today. Zinc looks increasingly  tight, while copper probably needs a bit of a breather before a new attempt at the 6.000$-hurdle.

The Australian market saw a very soft close of the financial year today. I guess nobody dares to have buying orders in the market anymore these days on running the risk of manipulation-accusations! 

Finders Resources - respected broker Petra Capital initiated coverage on the stock with a 42ct share price target! While Finders is still one of my largest holdings, I cannot see 42ct, unless using very high copper prices. But the stock is certainly very cheap at 17ct, and should trade 50% higher , in my opinion. The Quarter just ended should have delivered record production at costs below 1US$/lb  C1 cash costs. The company is rapidly paying back debt - will be interesting to see in the Quarterly, just by how much. debt could be gone by year end at current copper prices, and theoretically, they could become a huge div-payer next year. I hope, that the Board will announce a dividend policy soon.

Heron - timely announcement of a very large financing ( relative to the companies size of 29 Mill A$) today, going along with a  recent high for zinc. 240 mill$ in financing for a small company is an indication for what is possible! Thank´s god, that I ceased to be a shareholder some time ago - I would have been very disappointed today.!The stock actually fell 15% to only 7.1ct today, just a tine fraction above the 7ct placement price.

HRR raised: US$ 60 Mill in debt, 16 Mill US in a silver streaming deal, and 29 Mill A$ in equity from Orion Mine Finance; 42 Mill A$ in equity from Greenstone Resources; 33 Mill A$ from Castlelake LP, 32 Mill AS$ in a general placement. I will look at more detail at it some time next week.

have a nice weekend!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

 

 

 

General - Mineral Resources/Fortescue

Good afternoon

first Quarter GDP-estimate got slightly increased - inflation hardly existent - but I guess that´s nota  surprise, given the oil price recently. In Europe, consumer confidence continues to be at record levels, and inflation has slightly increased.

Hamburg is preparing for the G-20...15.000 police there - 220 of them got sent home already, as they spent their waiting time for the big event partying, drinking and misbehaving among themselves! Very funny story!

The bond sell-off gathering pace in Europe - German bunds are tarding at 0,43% yield, which is the highest since March last year. 

Equities don´t like that - and they don´t like the weak US$ either...contraty to base metals, which are very strong again. Copper is less than 50$ away from the magical 6000$-mark. The highest close since May last year has been just 10$ higher back in March .Don´t ask me, why gold is 10$ weaker at 1242 in the moment - I guess falling bond markets are the biggest influence today.

Mineral Resources - interesting announcement oday by this company, which is a significant producer of iron ore, lithium and a large mining services company. They have reduced their guidance for the 2017 financial year based on the recent weakness of iron ore, and the stregth of the A$. Both have been going into the wrong direction - even though iron ore has recovered quite dramatically over the last 3 days. New guidance is about 8% lower to just under 500 Mill A$ EBITDA. The interesting part of the announcement has been their statement, that the discount for iron ore with lower grades than the 62%-benchmark material, has attracted a discount of 35% as compared to the expected 25%. This does also affect Fortescue - but FMG alleviated concerns by guiding for cash costs of only 12-13 US$/t. This is another 2-3$ fall from last year. Amazing!

I fear, there is nothing much happening today elsewhere in terms of micro-news! 30th of June and the end of the financial year / tax-year for just about every company and all individuals are dictating the flows - or better non-flows!

have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

 

General - Genex Power - Horizon Gold - Australian Vintage

Good afternoon

The US$ feels like it wants to test the top of the 16-month trading range at around 1.15 to the Euro, also putting some pressure on the Euro/A$ exchange rate, which fell nearly 2% since yseterday morning ( i.e. the A$ is largely unchanged against the US$ ). But as the day progressed, some ECK-officials came out saying, that the market misinterpreted Draghi yesterday...!!! So most reversed...Dollar up, bonds up ....the world is short-lived!

Base metals are holding their strong close from yesterday, gold is slowly appreciating, while iron ore and steel rebar had another good day in China today. Iron ore is back to 60 US$/t.

The French like their Macron: Consumer Confidence jumps to a 10-year high - but that´s not enough to prevent European equities from another down-day. I guess the very weak US$ does not help here!

Genex - the Queensland Government declared GNX Solar Power Stage II, the Hydro-Power Project, as well as the electricity transmission line as "Prescribed Project" as well as a project of "Critical Infrastructure". Only one other project in Queensland has this statuts, and it´s a coal mine. The definition of these proejcts is : being critical or essential for the State for economic, eniromental or social reasons.  This announcement should turn out to be very important, as it should alleviate concerns, that the government-financed and -built transmission line might not be finished in time ( mid-end 2019 ) for GNX´s projects. Also, the company is in the middle of negotiating off-take agreements with the Queensland Government for Solar Stage II as wella s for the Hydro-pump Project, which should be made easier and quicker by this announcement. GNX is having meetings at a very high level of the Federal Government as well. So I think all ingredients are there to get this project not only of the ground, but also at a reasonable speed, and hopefully with substantial governement involvement. Beyond me, why this stock only moved up by 1 ct today! Broker Morgans Financial, who has  done the placement a few month ago, remains the largest seller in the stock.....an appauling performance! I bought some more privately today.

Horizon - the PAN-offshoot announced some inspiring exploration results from their gold asset today - some reasonable intersctions of 5-6m at 4-5-6g / t. Interesting, but not enough to set the market alight!

Australian Vintage - as some of you will remember, I have been involved their for some time, while not having been a shareholder for some time. I ahd sold my position, as the exchange rate of the A$ to Sterling became very negative for the company, as the UK is their main export market. AVG wine labels have continued to be very succesfull, but profitability has been limited the last few years due to the global wine glut, the worst of which should be behind us. The company is generating cashflow, and just released an updated outlook for the financial year tom 30th of June, which should show a net profit of 4.1 mill A$. The effect of weak Sterling should reduce in future - provided the currency does not fall further ( about 40% of sales are going into Europe/UK, and nearly all of it to the UK ). And a few month ago, AVG did an important deal with the founder of the largest, Chinese webpage for imported wine. They took a 16 Mill A$ placement in AVG at 46ct, which back then, was a small premium to the share price of AVG. Imports of wine into China are growing strongly again - the webpage has 30-40% growth p.a. - and I think it´s not unconceivable for AVG to have their international growth in China in the future. Given the substantial equity investment in AVG itself, I would also imagine, that the Chinese importer might not be very price sensitive. 

I am currently not a holder of AVG, but the share price has been weak lately - 41.5ct today, and I have them on my watch list.

have a nice evening!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

General - metals - Independence Gold

Good afternoon

the US$ is weak today against Euro - perhaps in expectation of Yellens comments later today - perhaps because Draghi commented, that loose policy will be continued in Europe despite a relatively broad improvement of our economy here. The IMF cut it´s growth forecast for Trump-country from 2.3 to 2.1% this year. Consumer Confidence is pretty strong in the US - but the phenomenon of a strong vote for present condition, and a weak vote for future conditions remains.

M&A for coal is continuing...Apollo is bidding for Wesfarmers, while the bidding war for RIO´s Hunter Valley assets continus. Coal is dead? Not sure about that....It might be desirable, but probably not possible for the next 15-20 years at least.

Metals are having a strong day again, while gold recovers from the Fat Finerg (?) story yesterday. Early this morning, 800.000 oz have been traded within 5 minutes...

I really do not understand the cautious mood for the metal stocks...these things have moved quite nicely recently:

                    Beginning of the year          low this year ( usually in early June )    today

Zinc             2576 US$/t                           2447                                                        2736

Nickel          10.000                                   8.800                                                      9.100

Copper         5.535                                     5.480                                                      5.826

Lead             2.016                                      2.055                                                      2.271

Cobalt          32.750                                                                                                   58.750

Gold              1.138 US$/oz                                                                                          1.250

So all of these metals have recovered nicely from the lows - usually reached a few weeks ago for base metals - but the mood continues to be pretty bad. This might have to do with iron ore, which has been suffering, and which in $-terms is all-important. But without any doubt, this is not a question of demand weakness, rather one of strongly rising supply. The price for steel rebar seems to support this argument, as steel is trading at a reasonably positive price today and is up by nearly 10% from year end 2016.

I guess tax-loss selling may be playing a part here. As you know, the Australian tax year is finishing on the 30th of June, and realised profits can be offset by realised losses. As the market is trading close to a high, the main losses are coming from smalelr resources stocks, which have been under constant pressure since about February anyway.

Usually, stocks being hit by tax-loss selling do outperform following the 1st of July - this is supported by very reasonable metal prices, and we might see some nicer moves, once the Quarterlies come out progressively over the course of July.

Independence Gold - had to cut it´s forecast production from their new, very important nickel mine Nova once again. A very funny one...there actually is some downgrading - but tehy also had to acknowledge, that tehy kind of mixed up teh amount of nickel in ore being fed into the plant, and the amount of nickel coming out of it at the eback end. As the recovery is disappointing so far at 79%, this effect has been exaggerated. But still - I hope tehy do their other business more diligent than tehy do theior production forecasts...this casts a very negatively light on management, in my opinion!!!

Have a nice evening

WS