Market Update

Trump, Commodities & Evolution

Good afternoon

Trump is making one thing very clear: He will kick-start the economy, and he will do it via massive fiscal spending. He will ONLY do, though, what is good for American people...

The US obviously are still the largest economy in the world - but tehy are NOT the largest consumer of commodities, as we all know. China is 3x larger than they are in that regard. The kind of spending he seems to have in mind would certainly be quite commodity-intensive, making his plans very positive for us as resources investors. All this is happening at a time, when general investors have no or very little exposure to the sector. So in my opinion, we will see a continued move from asset allocators into our space. 

What we do not know, though, is the potential impact on China. In fact, we do not even know, what Trump exactly is going to do with regards to free trade etc....But the above is not necessarely a one-way street only....we should not become too exuberant - even though there is certainly a lot opf reason to be positive on resources.

In the longer run, though, Trump might have a real problem in financing his spending spree. His relationship with the Fed is very difficult, and it got to be seen as very questionable, whether the world or the Fed will actually be happy to finance his deficits. Beside of that, I think higher wage-growth, and higher inflation generally will be a sure thing....so bonds will see a massive sell-off for many reasons over the enxt 12 month - in itself creating potentially lots of problems for housing markets, banks, and many indebted corporates - and certainly for many indebted people!

So - while all looks so good in the markets, this is not a one-way street, and we have lots of potential issues ahead - and that is not even talking about foreign politics, which will see massive changes over the next 12 month as well. what I am coming down to is: In this frenzy, do not forget gold!! Strangely enough, everybody is suddenly terribly positive on the impact of Trump, and equity markets are celebrating the better growth outlook. We are just about to enter the most volatile, political landscape since the second world war.....los of very large risks ahead...gold will do well! For now, it´s falling...at least as I am writing, it´s tarding at 1266, which is disappointing - while equity markets are lso coming back - and base metals still strong, but below the highs from this morning. Feels like the morning after!

Evolution - while tehy have been receiving a positive response to their last aquisition, effectively the gold- and 30% of the copperstream of Ernest Henry´s production, they have not really had much attentiaon given to the copper stream....30% of Ernest Henry is equal to about 20.000t of yearly copper production. Compared to the price of copper at the time of teh deal, that´s roughly an additional 20 mill$ income p.a. at current prices - quite meaningful. And the way Trump seems to push the economy, there might be much better prices ahead in 2-3 years. Again - all provided, that Trump does find a deal with China....

 

 

General - Kingsgate - Foran - Panoramic/Horizon

Good afternoon

thank you, America! What a great country - except for about 50% of the population voting for a primitive bloody lunatic! Extreme capitalists like D.T. have driven the country to where it is - now they vote him into presidency! Long live the  ape, and Darwinism! But Darwinism is probably good for business, definitely in the short run...??!!

When I woke up this morning I looked at outperformance of my fund first thing - it was 0,5% - then I looked at the absolute and I had to look twice...- 5% at that time....and I thought: f..k, he has done it....oh no....even my kids were shocked!

As you would expect, massive volatiliy today..and whatever I am writing, will be done with 30 min later, I guess...But at late afternoon our time in Europe, anything resources-related is trading at the day´s high or thereabouts - but gold is back to where we started!

Anyway...in my opinion, Trump´s election will be bad for bonds ( major spending programs, tax-cuts ), and will be good for US-commodity demand. Back to big cars, big trucks, coal powered energy, But what will it mean to world trade, and to China? His rethoric has certainly been negative in this regard, and we will just have to w ait and see, how much of his crazy talk will be converted to real politics. For bonds, though, this could be really big news...government bond markets are built on trust in a countries policies and it´s central bank - we do not know what either of them will look like in 6 month time!

In any case, iron and steel are making new highs today in Asian markets, and base metals, following a negative start in Asian time zone, are very strong again in London now...all making new highs, some of them new multi-year highs, lead by Mr.copper, which is up by 3% in the moment. Coking coal is trading spot above 300 US$ for the first time since the great flooding in Australia in 2011 - it traded at 76 US$ back in Feb this year!! Obviously, not sustainable - but I guess at 150 US$ all serious producers would be very happy indeed!

Not surprisingly in light of these commodity prices today, major miners in London all with new highs and very strong! And as you would expect with a Trump-win, coal stocks in the US show double-digit price increases today.

Gold with massive swings - trading as high as 1336 US$, when the Australian market closed, and holding just above 1300 as I am writing. The A$ gold price traded as high as 1750 A$/oz - it´s now trading just above 1700 A$, which is obviously a great price for Australian producers.

Panoramic / Horizon Gold - many investors asking me, what they should be doing here. Well I indicated the other day, that this spin-off has been initiated and priced to make shareholders of PAN some well-deserved profits, and at the current A$ gold price, I am sure it will! Looking across the explorer-spectrum in Australia, you have many exploration stocks with no current resources trading at 20-30-50 mill A$ Enterprise Value, as one Australian analyst pointed out to me today. And here you have Horizon, managed by to people, with an EV of 16 mill A$, ample cash for exploration, 600.000oz in serious resources and another 600.000oz in not-so-serious resources - and most probably excellent upside from exploration. I would be very surprised, if this thing would not trade at a premium of 30% initially, and potentially much more over the next few month. In my opinion - cheap in absolute terms, and very cheap in relative terms!

Kingsgate - produced more than 15.000oz in October and are on target to achieve the guidance of 40-45.000oz this Quarter, and on target to be debt ffree by year end. Following another 10 Mill US$ repayment on 15.11., they are down to 35 mill A$ in total debt, and they have 47 mill A$ in cash. I do realise, that the management situation is vulnerable - and that Australian institutions will not buy the stock for as long as Ross Smyth-Kirk, whom most of you have met, is the chairman. But he is not worth the discount the stock is trading at....

Foran Mining - I just cannot believe, that this thing is trading, where it is! Zinc/lead/copper going through the roof, treatment charges falling - the Canadian $ lower than it was at the time of the pre-feasibility study - NPV7 of 382 Mill Can$ and 4.1 years pay-back at the time of the study. At today´s prices, the NPV will be larger, and pay-back quite a bit below 4 years....And all this with Hudson bay, the large smelter, running out of concentrate within 3-4 years and left with a large, enviromental liability going into many hundred million of $´s....

This is a typical example of a company, completely forgotten by the market, trading at a fraction of the NPV...( market cap is about 19 mill Can$!!!!). Pierre Lassonde as a 11% shareholder will make sure, that this stock will not be forgotten forever! I have no idea when - but I do know, that one day, this stock will sky-rocket! Buy straw hats in winter....and as usual, I declare my interest ..this is just about the only Canadian stock I am holding in my portfolio....Just the same way as Panoramic is my option on the nickel price, Foran is my option on zinc/copper - though with a much smaller position.

Have a nice evening and as much as I dislike Trump - you never sip your tea as hot as you cook it!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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General - Kingsgate - Strike - Genex

Good afternoon

this is all happening very fast...just incredible, just how fast markets are moving these days! But for the underlying equities, it takes much longer. At least the large stocks like BHP/RIO/South 32 are not expressing the extremely bullish sentiment in those markets...Everybody expects a massive setback of physical prices, hence nobody is buying the equity...If you take BHP as an example...they produce something like 300 millt of iron ore p.a., the price of which is about 20$ higher today, than consensus would have had it just a few month ago. That´s a 6 bill$ difference in EBITDA p.a. ...all I am saying is, that there is still considerable upside in these stocks from today´s level, and they are very worthwhile holding.

Today, equity-, bond and precious metals markets are just waiting for the election...surprisingly, bulk commodities as well as industrial metals continue to march ahead - perhaps driven by some big budgets by China to invest in power + the grid over the enxt few years, which is very copper consuming. Copper has broken out today, as has nickel...more fun to come?!! And Caterpillar is up 12% in 2 day´s trading...

The real fun, though, will be in the smaller end - as ususal, and with a time leg. Most of these names are completely unknown to institutional investors at large, and hedge funds, and they are either developing assets, or a small producers. Examples are Prairie Mining, Paringa Resources - both are developing coal assets - or Stanmore Coal, a smallish coal producer. In copper we have a company like Finders Resources, which just started copper production and which is in the middle of a capital raising ( and it looks like it´s not going easy, despite the copper price and the fact, that they are producing copper at 1.10 US$/lb! ). Companies like them have substantially underperformed their large brothers...for no reason generally, but their size!

Much fun for me today from Panoramic, which finally responded with a nice move to better nickel prices, from Strike Energy, for which respected broking house Taylor Collison started coverage today with a price target of 37ct!, or even more so Genex, for which an initiation report from Cannacord has a risked valuation of 75ct, and un-risked of 1.69 A$! If you are interested in furtehr info on STX or GNX, let us know.

Strike Energy - to be honest, I am sick & tired to report about them and tell you once again, that they will prove commerciality shortly....I am still of the opinion, that STX are sitting on an extremely valuable project, and that the gas resource can be produced profitably. But all comments from the company indicate to me, that they in fact need some more time - and time is money. I have also no doubt, that they will need money...and the share price is expressing the markt´s disappointment about the time it takes to reach a commercial project, and my expectation, that they need more equity. You have also read my above comment, that a respected broker values them at 37ct....I also know, that large shareholders want to see somebody running the company, who has a strong, technical industry background. this makes sense to me. In the meantime, I am holding my position!

Genex - have published their technical feasibility study for the hydro power project today. It´s slightly disppointing to me in so far, as it does not contain any financial parameters - and for the technical stuff, you really have to be an engineer to understand it. But essential for me: The project is technical feasible - although that does not really surprise me. Of more importance is the above mentioned initiation report of Taylor Collison, as it is the first report coming up with definite numbers - and they are calling the stock to at least tripple, which is obviously music in my ears!

Kingsgate - interesting development last week...a Thai newspaper reported comments from the Thai Ministry of Industry, that they were uncertain as to the right of prematurely closing the Chatree Mine, that there is no evidence of hazadous waste contamination from the mine, and that the Ministry is discussing legal implications of the premature closure of Chatree with the Deputy Prime Minister. Kingsgate itself has not offically informed about anything of the above...buit it looks to me, that there is some movement behind the scenes. If I assume, that KCN can fulfill it´s budget and have it´s subsidiary Akara debt free by year end or at least nearly debt free, cash in the holding company + Nueva Esperanza are worth more than teh share price today. IF they can somehow realize some value at least for Chatree, or in the ebst case, get full permitting back, KCN will be worth dramatically more than today´s 52 mill A$. 

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see what the world looks like when we wake up tomorrow!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

General - Oz Minerals - Berkeley - Gold Road - Lucapa - Panoramic - Prairie Mining - Paringa - Cardinal

Good afternoon

well, Donald, it was worth trying!..Not that anybody is happy with Hillary, but for our markets except for gold, it is certainly the risk-free solution to have her run the deeply divided country....let´s hope, that I am not wrong with these comments....

It seems that markets are now largely expecting the above - base metals are very strong indeed, as zinc and lead are making new highs or just about, copper trading above 5000$/t for the first time since April ( and about to march through strong chart resistance ), nickel ( if it closes at the current level ) also at a 14-month high and on it´s way to 12.300 US$/t on the charts. Equities are rallying, and the US$ is trading slightly stronger. Alone gold, as expected, is being pushed down - but if we hold the current level of around 1285 US$/oz, I think this would also be a positive outcome and better than I had feared for in case of a Hillary-win. We should not forget - whoever wins, the US are a deeply divided and unstable ( ??!!) country...lots of uncertainty out there, and many reasons to own gold for the long term!

Iron ore and steel with new highs in China-trading continue to defy the analysts....and coking coal is limit-up !

The question now is not IF we are in a commodities bull market, but  how far it can go....and as usual, I have no idea, but it feels bloody good!

Some big news out today for my universe of stocks today:

Gold Road - are selling 50% of the 6.2 mill oz  Gruyere Project to Goldfields for 350 mill A$ in cash ( of which 250 mill front up ) + 1.5% royalty on GFI´s stake above 2 mill oz produced. That is a full price being paid by GFI - equivalent to 80ct/share of GOR + all the exploration upside from their large land position + 50 mill in cash at the end of this Quarter ( prior to the GFI-funds being paid ).....The stock will have a nice jump tomorrow. Goldfields will also have to carry the first 10% in cost overruns over the 507 mill A$ expected by the feasibility study. As some broker stated today - this will be the best funded, Australian explorer.  

Cardinal - got a hammering today! The company came out with the first resource estimate, which was excellent: at a cut-off grade of 0,5g/t, 96 millt at 1.3g/t for 3.9 mill oz - most of that in inferred resources. If anything, that is slightly larger than expected. BUT: by some estimates , up to 40% of the resource could be refractory, requiring the company to look for unconventional processing routes like roasting, bacterial leaching or production of a concentrate cted result, making things harder and more complicated. Much work has to be done at the project, to find the optimal route of processing, and quite some level of work is left to extend the resource, and to infill-drill. The company is welkl cashed up to do all this.

The market reacted very negatively today, especially to the metallurgical issues facing the project. Having completely sold out earlier, I started to buy some stock today....I think it´s overdone, and I still believe, that this a good project. But I am unsure, whether we will have seen the low today - sometimes, these things overshoot

To add a further twist, Mark Thomas resigned from the board today, and Kevin Tomlison replaced Mark Conelly as chairman ( C remains as a board member for now ? ), letting me only speculate about some internal issues here....There are many possible ways to deal with the refractory ore, even though the overall grade of the deposit is not fantastic. But by no means, the story ios over - hence some bottom-fishing today. In light of the executive management, which is not very well rated, I have entered into my small position today from a trading perspective....

Prairie Mining - surprised late last week with another coup with regards to their Lublin-based asset to produce mainly thermal coal: PDZ and CC5C, which constructs 40% of Chinese coal mines incl some very deep shafts, entered into a strategic co-operation agreement, and will jointly finish a bankable feasibility study for the construction of the coal mine. The parent of CC5C is China Coal, the second largest, Chinese coal producer with assets of 50 bill US$. CC5C is also expected to organize debt-funding for the proposed mine. 

This is not a definite transaction - buta strong step towards one. Bot the companies assets, coking coal + thermal coal and both in Poland, could be company makers and could each be worth substantially more than the current share price, in my opinion.

Paringa - also with some excellent news today: Todd Hannigan was appointed as CEO, and Tom Todd as CFO. Both have been shareholders already. hannigan was CEO, and Todd CFO of Aston Mining, which was merged with Whitehaven Coal a few years ago in a 5 bill A$ transaction. Both these guys would not have to work for many anymore - so they obviously view this as a outstanding opportunity to use their energy. Todd Hannigan praised the company today as using the Alliance Resources Partners model to fast track the first mine, to produce 1.7 millt of thermal coal to start the project, and to increase it in steps to 6 millt p.a. Next steps are he release of the bankable fesibiliy study,a nd full permitting of the mine, before they go into construction by the middle of next year! Again - this stock could easily double in value....

Panoramic - the company is now spinning off it´s gold subsidiary, called Horizon Gold. Shareholders of Panoramic can apply on a first-come basis any multiple of 2.000$ worth of stock in the float. The new company will have a market cap of about 30 mill A$ at the IPO price of 40ct. The market cap will be 30 mill$, of which about 14 mill are cash - and PAN will retain a 51% stake. The Gum Creek Project produced gold until 2005, when the A$ gold price was about 500 A$/oz, and has 500.000oz of resouzrces, which are amenable to conventional, open pit extraction, and 180.000 oz of underground, free milling ore. Additionally, there are about 460.000 oz of refractory ore, which at this stage, look not very profitable to be brought into production. There remains significant upside from exploration and drill-ready targets. The old mine has all infrastructure incl mine camp etc in place, but does need a  new plant. Looking at comparable projects, the EV should be rather 25-27 mill A$ ( not valuaing the refractory ore ), which equates to a market cap of 40 mill A$+ on listing, giving us an immediate uplift. This is also, what PAN had intended with this IPO - making some money for embattled shareholders. Any higher valuations will depend on exploration results / and or the gold price. I will subscribe for a significant amount.

Otherwise, the nickel price is providing some fun for PAN....I have long been saying, that a sustained nickel price of 12.000 US$+ would be needed, to bring the Savannah Mine back on sttream - well, after today´s move, we are less than 10% below that price! At this stage, we can only speculate, what production costs from a reborn Savannah, and especially Savannah North would be, as the feasibility study will only be available at around year end - but I suspect, that they will be lower than from previous production...and I hope below 4 A$/lb.....we will find out relatively soon.!

Lucapa Diamonds - sold another parcel of 1864 ct from Lulo for 8.3 mill US$ - a great average price of 4.450 US$/ct and a record result, other than for the special 404ct diamond for 16 mill US$ in Feb. The company has 2.800ct in inventory and will therefore hold another 2 sales this Quarter, one more than originally planned. This certainly indicates, that production continues to go very well this Quarter!

OZ Minerals - released the PFS for Carapateena, their next copper mine in Australia. carapateena is planned to produce 61.000t of copper and 63.000oz of gold over the approx 15 year mine life, for capex of 980 Mill A$. The IRR at an exchange rate of 75ct and a copper price long term of just under 3US$lb, gold price 1225 US$,  would be 20%.OZ Minerals are most probably fully valud at the current priuce of about 7$ - unless you are really bullish on copper. but there is very limited copper exposure available in Australia, at least in halfway sizeable, pure producers - so OZL could well run further, if the copper price manages to break out of the 12-month trading range - which looks imminent to me!

Berkeley Energia - managed to place 30 mill US$ worth of stock with major institutions at no discount, at 45p / share in London. That is a great piece of work, considered, that uranium is trading at 19 US$lb = 11 year low, and that 100% of the world´s uranium production would be loosing money at this price! It´s testimony to their excellent project quality - Zona 7, once permitted and in production, could produce uranium at an incredible 10 US$/lb....that is unheard of in the western world. The 30 mill US$ will allow them to start with construction of the crushing circuit early in 2017....

Uranium is probably the only mineral, which is down this year - and still trading at 11-year lows, way below the cost curve of western world production, and even Kazak production. It is absolutely essential for security of the world´s nuclear industry to rise substantially at some stage...yet the timing is uncertain, and nobody would have ever thought, that today´s 19 US$ would be possible! If you want to be very countercyclical, and buy a world class projects while things are really bad, this is the one! They will survive even in bad times...The next trigger for BKY will be the announcement of a startegic partner...I guess this placement could speed up this process, as it puts the company on very solide footing and put´s it in a great negotiating position.

have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

 

 

General - Prairie Mining - Orecorp - Genex - zinc stocks

Good afternoon

the Australian $ is rising, interest rates are rising, first signs of some inflation kicking in, iron ore and various coal types are making new recent highs just about every day, base metals ex copper have been very strong this year and are strong again today, steel is racing - and major companies, which are very leveraged because of debt or through the commodities they are producing like Glencore, Teck, Anglo or S32 have had unbelievable runs this year. This has all ingredients of a great bull market - and as usual, the small stocks will be the last to move, and possibly by the most...and at some stage, even the dogs in your portfolio will go for a run!

The Chinese PMI has been a positive surprise today....the economy has been doing very well lately in China, underpinning my belief, that commodity price rises are not only supply-driven, but also demand-driven...The US-PMI has also been slightly better than expected...

Quite surprising to me is the fact, that Australian gold stocks are not moving at all. The big reweighting has happened in the first half, and since then, stocks have given up 30% or so from the highs. That made sense, as they had been running ahead of the fundamentals - and obviously, gold fell by nearly 100$ as well. But at current levels, I can see much value around...stocks like Evolution, Resolute, Perseus or Saracen at levels, which represent value vs the current gold price. Gold has convincingly broken away from the 200-day moving average today, helped by the FBI and a weaker US$.....oh my god...will THIS MAN win the election??????????????

Prairie Mining - just before I left to Australia, they announced the aquisition of the Debiensko Hard Coking Coal Project in Southern Poland. What a coup! This is a strategic asset, in Europe, which imports 80% of it´s hard coking coal from Australia and the US, incurring approx 20$/t in shipping costs. Down to 1100 m, the asset has a so called exploration target of 120 mT to 150 mT...and this is only called that way, as the resource does not need to comply with the modern JORC standard. I very much assume, that it´s there....

It´s very high quality coking coal, similar to good quality, Australian coal - which is regarded as having a very high standard. PDZ have got this asset from the receiver, explaining, why they have got it for the crazy amount of 0.7 mill $ now - 2,2 mill$ deferred - an absolute joke. The Polish coal mining companies are all in a financially very tight position, and nobody else has been looking at it...PDZ with it´s existing Polish asset, and the Polish MD, has been in the front row here, and they have pulled it of. 

The asset is fully permitted, infrastructur at it´s door steps. The project is surrounded by existing mines, owned by JSW, Poland´s largest coking coal producer - a heavily indebted company.

PDZ´s asset could be capable of producing 2-3 millt of high quality coking coal at possibly 50 US$/t ...the current spot price is 256 US$/t, having sky-rocketed from a low of 75$...Nobody sees this price as sustainable in the long run - but a fact is, that good quality hard coking coal is pretty rare, and certainly so in the middle of Europe! Medium term prices of say 150 US$ t for this project are conceivable, and you make do the sums on it yourself...2.5 millt at 50$ could generate 250 mill$ p.a.. Even if teh development of the mione could cost 500 mill$ or so - this could be teh second fantastic asset for PDZ. Their Lublin thermal coal project is a bit of a sleeper - but thermal coal has also more than doubled from the lows, and that project alone should be easily worth PDZ´s share price. Once teh stale bulls have sold, what they want to sell, I can see substantially higher prices for Prairie Mining. Hard to believe - but coal has moved from being the very ugly duckling to a very sexy little thing...

Genex - I have been pushing this company pretty hard over the last 6 month or so, since tehy presented at our little conference in Zurich. I met them in Australia, and I have left their office more bullish than ever! The solar power project, generating 50 MW on Stage 1 of what could ultimately be a 150 MW project, will see financial clsoe very soon, and will be in construction this year - generating by the end of 2017. This is not their major project, but just to show you, how financable these proejcts are: 120 mill$ capex - 105 mill from the banks - 9 mill government grant - that leaves just 6 mill to be financed by equity or some incoming partner, for an asset, which is worth between 30-a nd 50 mill$ or equivalent of toadys market cap, and has a 20 year price guarantee for electricity from the Queensland Government. If they can pull off a similar financing structure for their 350m MW hydro pump project, located at the old Kidston Gold Mine and adjacent to the solar plant, the stock could be worth a multiple of today´s price - and I think it will be! A hydro pump power station effectively is a large battery - pumping water up, when the electricity price is very low at night time, and letting it down, when prices are high in the morning and in the evening, when people come home and get the washing machine started.... South Australia is having major problems with their electricity system, due to the very high percentage of wind and solar being produced. The same could happen in Queensland, where GNX are based. Everybody has a huge interest to see this project come off the ground, and I would expect another government grant for it , of up to 50 mill$. The feasibility study for the hydro pump project should come out any day - it´s overdue.

Heron and Foran - I just wonder what it will take for these companies to go for a run. Zinc has gone through the roof, lead prices are up strongly - and now copper is starting to move and once again, is approaching the 5000$/t resistance level. In the current enviroment, I see a good chance for this level to be cleared some time this year. Both projects are very viable at current prices for the various metals to be produced, and both stocks could be worth multiples of today´s prices, if and when we see some speculation coming into the market for base metal stocks. That has not happened as yet - just buy a few of each and put in the bottom draw! A very similar story to my little Panoramic in nickel - once we see another 15-20% in the nickel price ( and all steel-related minerals/metals are booming currently! ), little PAN should behave like a rocket...

Orecorp - that is a new story from my trip. I have followed teh stock on the side lines for some time, and could not get that excited, as they only own 25% of their project, once tehy have spent 14 mill$ to completion of a DFS. Acacia, the current owner of the project called Nyanzaga in Tansania, can then elect to retain a 75% interest by paying ORR a multiple of it´s expenditure, depending on the NPV of the project. This all sounds a bit complicated, and it certainly has previously put me off. But two things attracted me now: Firstly, the scoping study, finished in August, looks very sexy - and second, there might well be a chance for ORR to go to 51% of the project ( that is a very unsubstantiated rumour ). If the runour is not right, ORR will end up with at least 50 mill$ in cash, and 25% of a proejct, which looks like it will have a very substantial NPV of several hundred mill$. The current market cap of ORR of 83 mill A$ ( and 15 mill in cash )does not reflect this potential at all - and certainly not the upside of ORR gaining a lkarger percentage of the project.

Nyanzaga scoping study is estimating, that the project will produce 220.000 oz for the first 5 years,. and a total of 2.4 mill oz over the initial 13 year mine life ( or 182.000 oz p.a. over 13 years ). Including a 45 mill$ contingency, the costs to build the project has been estimated at 248 Mill US$. This is a sexy project by all means, and the current pre-feasibility study will most probably confirm this ( finsihed in 1st Quarter 2017 ). Management is a mix of very senior people from Equinox ( taken over by barrick for 7 bill$ ), and Mantra ( uranium stock, taken over by some Russian company for 700 mill, if I remember correctly ). I have met with the MD, Matt Yeates, who has been operating as MD of Mantra for several years in Tanzania before - I had a very positive impression. 

Good management, good cash position, big project at average grade of 3.5g gold/t, BUT small holding in the project - though potentially to be increased are adding up to a situation, which in my opinion, is at least 50% undervalued - and potentially much more. But for more definite valuations , we will have to wait for 4-5 month, until the study is out. 

I am holding positions in every stock above, except for in Orecorp.

have a nice evening, lean back and let the bull market work for you!

WS

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