Market Update

General - FAR - Middle Island - Cardinal Resources - Talisman - Manas Resources - Nestor Australien - Chalice

Good afternoon

so Johnson is the new foreign minister of the UK - almost an insult to have a liar as foreign minister...Otherwise I have to say, that Mrs.May seems to be a very respectable person to run the country - hard nut, but making the right noises. One thing is for sure: She should not expect too much compromising from us....I hope, that Cameron never turns up again - but I am sure, that before long, he will appear on some advisory board of Goldman´s....

Australian job numbers were strong and helped  the A$ a little higher.

Base metals still want to go higher...zinc up 1%, nickel up 1% ( Macquarie substantially increasing the forecast deficits in supply for 2016 and 2017, even before disruptions from potential mine-closures in the Philippines ), copper and lead up a little. But gold is being hit again today - trading just above 1320 as I am writing. The upward trend is running at 1300 - so that better holds - but I think it will. It needed a breather...and while equities are going higher every day, investors are led to believe, that everything is absolutely wonderful!

FAR - JV-partner Conoco ( 35% ) sold it´s stake in FAR´s Senegalese asset for 430 Mill US$ U valuing FAR´s stake at 241 Mill A$. Adding their approx 80 mill$ in cash, that´s about in line with the market cap. A bit disappointing, even taking into account, that major companies are not the best sellers of assets, usually. Stock reacted negatively today...and I think they are quite sensitive to the oil price, which is not positive in the moment. Talk is, that deap water assets like FAR´s need 50 US$ to be developed....which should be conservative, once the oil field can produce in a few years time. But obviously, it´s much nicer to make a positive decision, when oil prices are above the needed level. In general, I believe, that oil could well tarde between roughly 45- and 50$ for WTI for some time, as prices above 50$ should see US shale producers turn on the tap again.

Middle Island - they are certainly doing something to underpin the stellar performance they have had this year! They bought the Sandstone Mine in W.A.of the receiver ( the deal was negotiated around Christmas, when nobody wanted it, but only settled in April ). They bought it incl of a 600.000t plant, and have enough cash to develope the asset to a feasibility study. At this stage, it looks like tehy need only 8-9 mill$ to refurbish the old plant. Today they announced some progress from a review of old exploration results, and some re-assaying resulted in two holes giving them 22m with 23g / 8m with 56g / 5m with 26g from underground drilling, in depth of 200-300m. The holes will be followed up shortly by some more drilling and could end up forming a nice, add-on underground resource. MDI won´t be a major story, at least not from Sandstone - but they could well make some money back for some very old backers, who bought them in the IPO many years ago! I would expect some nice drilling results, before they will end up raising some more cash - but that could be some time away.

Cardinal Resources - another very nice drill hole today:   If they continue this way, their resource will easily make it to developement! As you know, the grades so far looked like a 1-1.2g ore body, and even though it will be rather large - 2-3 mill oz? - and with a low stripping ratio, that is still on the slim side. Today they reported 75m with 2,88g, 66m with 1,54g / 47m with 1.26g / 30m with 2.08 g / 29m with 1.72g / 24m with 1.12 g and 15m with 2.,19g. They are the type of holes they need to increase the overall grade!

Talisman - is coming back to life, on the back of some renewed interest in base metal stocks, and a nice run for the JV-partner Sandfire. I am still expecting SFR to bid at some stage for TLM, to get rid of a junoir partner, and a better share price makes a bid more probable. The JV has now applied for a mining license, which should not take too long to get in W.A.. The resource is just 10km away from SFR´s plant, which could increase production and could well do with longer reserves.

Manas Resources - I believe, that some punters in Switzerland might have some left in this nano-cap....Resolute is gradually increasing it´s shareholding ...now over 7%...interesting one

Chalice - their shareholding in FF in Canada is going through the roof....FF today up by another 15% or so...at 1.30 Can$ ( last trade and on 7.7 mill shares turnover today ) Chalice underlying NTA, consisting of 37 mill A$ cash and 32.5 mill shares in FF, is 75 mill A$ ( after tax on any profits on selling FF )....they are capped at last trade Australia at 52 mill A$. The discount should be 20% at worst - if any, for a company, which has done two significant transactions over the last few years, and has made big profits on both....You can be assured on a big pay-out to shareholders, as they have done before, on top of the currently operating buy-back.

 

Last but not least - a link to some analyst, who has analized our Nestor Australien fund - I think a very fair assessment. http://www.aktiencheck.de/kolumnen/Artikel-SJB_FondsEcho_Nestor_Australien_Fonds-7302511   As at today, Nestor is trading at 191.62 = + 24.33% this year,, and more importantly, up by about 11% over three years - we are catching up big time!

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at bscott@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons. 

.

General - Berkeley - Troy - Fortescue

Good afternoon

Equities still on the march - but finally, bonds have been weaker the last two days....as currencies are not doing much today.

More discussions about Italian banks...a few little asset sales don´t really help to plug a 360 Bill Euro-hole! You would not believe it, but I am opening up a second bank account for my firm, to have the cash at two different banks....and this is also the view of a senior auditor/accountant here in Munich, who does the same for his firm! I have never ever thought about doing this before - not even in the Lehman-crisis!

Unsurprisingly, the A$ is making new, recent highs against the Euro - and also against the USD. It looks like it can go to 0.78 A$/US$ and against Euro, 1.40 A$/eur might be a good target.

Nickel stocks going through the roof in Australia today....nickel hit 10.500$/t yesterday in London - now some profit-taking , trading at 10315 US$/t right now. Copper also very strong, not holding the very high, earlier levels, and zinc is trying to go higher as well. Gold is also recovering from a low of 1328 during Asian trading, to 1342 US$ early afternoon European time. The bull market can continue...but one liitle word of caution: Holdings in the large gold ETF actually fell yesterday by 500.000 oz.

Iron ore rocketing again, as are steel prices in China...nobody believes, that iron ore prices of close to 60$/t are sustainable - I guess we all agree! But some of the mroe bearish estimates will be wrong as well...Thermal Coal is also moving, backed by rising, Chinese imports, as some Chinese production has gone out of the market.

Berkeley Resources - suspended, pending the announcement of the feasibility study for their Spanish uranium mine. Funny enough, it´s trading on AIM - that market indicates a price of 71ct, about 10% higher than in Australia. Feels like the study will be a good one! we should know more latest by Friday.

Troy Resources - oh no, not them again! As everybody thought that they had turned the corner, they surprised with a negative production warning today, after market. Production has been hampered by heavy rain, but also some grade control issues, as I understand it. They have managed to word the announcement that way, that it´s hard to understand!! We have had so many issues with them, so many profit-warnings....no doubt, that this time, there is some bad luck involved. But don´t we say: The luck is with the able? Does this say, that bad luck is with the unable??? it almost seems that way here. Probably it´s too late to sell anyway, as the stock should be down tomorrow.

Fortescue - confirms, what some analysts had gathered from port numbers: They had a great Quarter, beating the guidance for the year to 30.6. by 4.5 millt to produce a total of 169.5 millt of iron ore. I can only repeat, what I have said before: This is one of the best managed mining companies, I know - certainly operationally...At these rates, they are just printing money...more than 3 bill A$ in EBITDA last year, and this year...and as the only way to get some money out of the company for major shareholder and Chairman Andrew Forrest, is to pay dividends. Be assured, that those will be very nice in the next few years! They could well be 8% or so in 2 years time, once debt has been further reduced.

Have a nice day

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

 

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at bscott@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

 


 

 

 

General - sorry, again Panoramic!

Good afternoon

Mrs. May , the new UK-premier, sounds like a pretty good choice - at least from what I have heard and seen so far. Markets seem to agree - she is managing to induce some confidence , and Sterling is recovering. Amazingly enough, the FTSE 250 Index ( much more representative than the FTSE 100, which has numerous foreign companies included, like BHP/RIO etc ) has recovered most of the initial fall of 19% or so, and is down by just 2.5% from pre-Brexit level. Crazy stuff, and we have a good example here, just how much these markets are driven by liquidity ! 

Markets are continuin to race, on the back of the expectation of more stimulus. I am asking myself, what else tehy could so? Helicopter money??? If it continues like this, my cynical comment from a few days ago, that the debt problem is non-existent, as central banks around the world only had to cancel out all governemnet bonds they own, might not be all that crazy and cynical!

Even a large investment bank, Macquarie, is saying in it´s research today: " We believe that global economy and investors are residing in the twilight zone between an era of relatively free market capitalist economies and a new enviroment which is likely to be completely dominated by the state. ....It would take the form of state-sponsored stimulation of consumption, investment, R&D and rescuing what essentially is a bancrupt financial super structure ...."

Buy gold???? Buy gold!!!!! Very interesting today: gold is weak...finally succumbing a little to the fantastic run in equities around the world...BUT: as I am finishing this, the GDXJ is trading unchanged, gold at 1338 US$...that tells me, that we are just having a correction within a strong trend!

Goldman Sachs have come out and largely reversed their negative outlook for the metals...especially for nickel: 12.000 US$ in 6 month, and zinc: 2500$ ....that is good news. Goldman´s recommendations still carry a lot of weight, and unsurprisingly, metal prices in London are up by around 2% - nickel at 8-month high of 10.330 $/t and zinc 12-month high of 2184 $hd -´r

Panoramic - sorry..again my favourite subject...but they came out with early Quarterly reporting. Not a major story, as tehy ceased production from Savannah at the end of May. Produced just short of 2.000t nickel in the Quarter. The company has 30 mill $ cash and receivables - and will probably have 27 mill$ after all redundancies etc have been paid for, which is about 2 mill$ more than expected - probably nickel price related. They hint at more positive exploration results, to be published in the full Quarterly, and perhaps more important in the short run, at metallurgical progress on the treatment of their refractory gold reserve ( on top of the oxide reserves ). I spoke to Peter Harold today, who is genuinely very bullish on nickel- as well as gold exploration. The feasibility study on Savannah North is making good progress! Will be very interesting to see, what costs they will come up with! In the short run, PAN´s chart looks a bit toppy - in the long run, they might have just started...

 Have a nice eveing

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

Seitzstr.7a

80538 München

 

Tel. +49-89-4613440-0

Fax +49-89-4613440-10

email: wschroeder@schroeder-equities.com

website: www.schroeder-equities.com

 

eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

Geschäftsführer: Wilhelm Schröder

 

The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at bscott@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

Cardinal - Panoramic

Good afternoon

what an amazing day on Friday...S&P with a new intra-day high, bonds at a new high, gold at a new high....strange world - obviously, liquidity is driving it all!

Coal usage is staging something like a comeback in the States, as high temperatures drive the gas price up and make coal more competitive.

Iron ore and Steel Rebar are holding at good levels ( iron ore still 55 US$ ).....Most analysts are callinmg iron ore lower over the next few month....but tehy would have said the same a few month ago!

Citi, which is one of the top-rated commodity teams in the market, is generally bullish for commodities in 2017.

Gold is under a bit of pressure today, as equity markets are recovering all day, and as metals are also stronger. Nickel is up again, probably speculative interest, based on some comments of the new Enviromental Minister in the Philippines. As reported earlier on, she wants top audit all mining operations - but she has already set the scene on Friday, commenting, that she does not know a single mining operation, which is enviromentally ok. Does sound like the Philippino nickel miners need to take the the gloves off!

Panoramic - announced the planned spin-off of their gold asset, Gidgee - now called Gum Creek Gold. A prospectus is being prepared - IPO is planned for September. The plan is to value the asset at 15 mill A$, and raise 15 Mill in cash from existing shareholders of PAN only. This would leave all the value-add, and the expected re-rating, in the hands of shareholders. I understand, that PAN will hold 50% of the new company - but that remains to be cleared up. If this is the case, it will be a bargain - the NPV of Gum Creek at 1800 A$ and based on the initial 290.000oz of production from oxide material only, should be around 75 mill A$ - leaving all exploration upside ( which is thought to be substantial ), and the remaining 700.000 0z ( most of which is refractory ore ) out of the valuation.

PAN have been complaining for some time, that the gold asset is valued at extremely little as part of PAN - the separate listing should rectify this. More, once more detail is available!

Cardinal - raised 21.7 mill A$ ( total market cap was only 73 Mill A$ so dar, undiluted ) for exploration and development of the existing asset in Ghana.

The placement was something like twice oversubscribed! Shows us, just how much demand there is from institutional investors. Coernerstones are Precious Cap, Zurich, which most of you will know, and Colonial - interesting enough, a general fund of them, not the resources arm.

Have a nice evening

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at bscott@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.

 

 

 

Correction? - Perseus - Resolute - Lucapa

Good afternoon

is the long-awaited consolidation of gold with us now? it almost fels like it - but interesting is, that so far - 1 hour into US-trading - gold stocks are giving up less even than they made yesterday...today is crucial, for my feeling, as we will find out, whether market participants are still buying any dip, or whether we need a break!

European markets are recovering a little today - as is the british pound. oil is trading better ( hoops - as I am closing, it moved from +2% to miuns 1.5% ! ), but base metals are mixed to weaker.

The People´s Bank of China bought some 500.000 oz of gold again in June, after pausing in may.

Mrs. Lopez, the Enviroment Secretary of the Philippines and the newly found, best friend of nickel bulls, empazised again her willingness to close non-compliant mining operations over the next few month. I think as a minimum expectation, nickel ore mining will become more expensive, driving potentially costs of Chinese nickel pig iron producers up.

Chilean exports of copper at the lowest since 2009 last month, driven by lower grades, and a lack of water in the country. But Peru with it´s rising production nearly makes up for it. The low copper prices is making it hard for new projects - CRU estimate, that just 6 new, larger projects will make it until 2020, which might well not be enough to satisfy demand.

Perseus - a better Quarter than feared for! just above 40.000 oz were 8% up on the March-Quarter, and 24% up on the Dec-Quarter, as per guidance. Costs will only be known, once the full Quarterly has been released, but will be within guidance as well. Very encouraging to see, that the grade control issues seem to be in hand - grades improved by 19% vs previous Quarter to 1.01g/t, and improved further in June to 1.04g/t. Guidance for Financial Year to June 2017 remains unchanged for Edikan: 226.000 oz at 1207 US$ all-in-site costs, followed by 282.000 oz in 2018 at 996 US$. It´s this imporvement, which I like - and which I hope to be achieved. Sissingue, the new and much smaller mine, should be in production early in the 4th Quarter of 2017 - probably 2-3 month later than expected as to delays in final approvals.

The relocation project makes good progress - first houses have been moved into now.

Resolute - also with a first update of production during the June-Quarter. Debt is fully repaid, cash and bullion of 101 mill A$. Production of 315.000 oz was exactly in line with guidance, AISC of 1210 A$/oz were marginally better than guidance. POiutlook for this financial year is for a minimum of 300.000 oz - again, more or less in line withe xpectations, which are 310-315.000 oz, at AISC of 1280 A$. Exploration budget has been increased to 19 mill A$. More exact update to come in the Quarterly Report.

Lucapa Diamonds - Quarterly out today. No big surprises - mining numbers up, plant throughput up, production up in line. No "mega"-diamonds have been found in the Quarter, which was still subject to very wet conditions. Production and Mining-numbers are showing the increased investment in equipment. Exploration has started in earnest now - that could/should be the main driver, alongside the potential discovbery of very large stones, as the company will be mining in the area which delivered the best diamonds so far.. Following the capex, LOm have 15 mil $ cash in the bank, and had 1220 cts in inventory. 

Have a nice eveing, and enjoy the soccer, if you are French or Germany!

WS

Schröder Equities GmbH

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eingetragen im HR München, HRB 166985

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The information contained in this communication is confidential and is intended only for the use of the addressee. Unauthorised use, disclosure or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please delete it and notify us by telephone at +49-89-4613440-0, by fax at +49-89-4613440-10 or by e-mail at bscott@schroeder-equities.com immediately. Please note that this communication does not constitute and may not be construed as investment advice and / or referral to buy or sell financial instruments. Unless specified otherwise, the views expressed in this communication are solely subjective notions of the individual sender and / or the entity or individual stated as the author of any information submitted. Performance in the past may in no case be considered as an indication for future performance. Please also note that Schröder Equities GmbH and / or its officers or employees may have interests in financial instruments referred to this communication. A current list of shareholdings can be emailed on request. Furthermore, our clients are hereby informed that Schröder Equities GmbH renders advisory services to Nestor Australien Fonds, an investment fund administered by Nestor Investment Management S.A. Luxemburg. Please also note that e-mails can be intercepted by unauthorized persons.